Notes

Corliss Online Financial - The real role models of the global economy

China's large external surplus – above 10 per cent of GDP in 2007 – has narrowed significantly in recent years, with the trade imbalance falling to about 2.5 per cent of GDP. As the surplus came down, so did the economy's growth rate – indeed, almost point for point.

To be sure, China's annual growth remains comparatively high, at above 7 per cent. But growth at this level reflects an unprecedented – and unsustainable – rise in domestic investment to nearly 50 per cent of GDP. When investment returns to normal levels, economic growth will slow further. Obviously, not all countries can run trade surpluses at the same time. In fact, the successful economies' superlative growth performance has been enabled by other countries' choice not to emulate them. In fact, while Germany did undertake some reforms, so did others, and its labor market does not look substantially more flexible than what one finds in other European economies.

A big difference, however, was the turnaround in Germany's external balance, with annual deficits in the 1990's swinging to a substantial surplus in recent years, thanks to its trade partners in the eurozone and, more recently, the rest of the world. As the Financial Times' Martin Wolf, among others, has pointed out, the German economy has been free-riding on global demand. Other countries have grown rapidly in recent decades without relying on external surpluses. But most have suffered from the opposite syndrome: excessive reliance on capital inflows, which, by spurring domestic credit and consumption, generate temporary growth. But recipient economies are vulnerable to financial-market sentiment and sudden capital flight – as happened recently when investors anticipated monetary-policy tightening in the United States.

Consider India, until recently another much-celebrated success story. India's growth during the past decade had much to do with loose macroeconomic policies and a deteriorating current account – which recorded a deficit of more than 5 per cent of GDP in 2012, having been in surplus in the early 2000's. Turkey, another country whose star has faded, also relied on large annual current-account deficits, reaching 10 per cent of GDP in 2011.

Source: http://gereinmartin.bravesites.com/entries/finance/corliss-online-financial-the-real-role-models-of-the-global-economy