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Empirical
Experimental observation Ex: Process control
Theoretical
Uses known elements Ex: Coin toss, die rolling
Subjective
Assumptions Ex: I think that.....
PROBABILITY COMPONENTS
Experiment
An activity with observable result
Sample Space
A set of all possible outcomes
Event
A subset of a sample space
Outcome/Sample Point
The result of an experiment
BERNOULLI PROCESS
P= Probability
x= Number of times for a specific outcome within "n" Trials
n= Number of trials
p= Probability of success on a single trial
q= Probability of failure on a single trial
!= Factorial- Product of all integers less than or equal
PROBABILITY
A way of communication the belief that an event will occur.
Expressed as a number between 0 and 1
Fraction, percent, decimal, odds
Total probability of all possible events totals 1
RELATIVE FREQUENCY
The number of times an event will occur divided by the number of opportunities.
Expressed as a number between 0 and 1
Fraction, percent, decimal, odds
Total frequency of all possible events totals 1
BINOMIAL PROCESS
Each trial has only two possible outcomes
Yes-no, on-off, right wrong
Trial outcomes are independent
Tossing a coin does not affect future tosses
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
The more trials that are conducted, the closer the results become to the theoretical probability.
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