Notes

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe
Allies should thus consider, as a matter of urgency, persuasive signalling to Russia about possible conventional military responses (e.g. a disabling of Russian military targets in the Black Sea) that would come as a result of such acts. Only the certainty of retaliation can dissuade the Kremlin from seriously contemplating such an option. After more than four months of fighting, it is Russia that is experiencing manpower shortages. Fearing https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-has-the-uk-sent-to-ukraine.html , the Kremlin is reluctant to call for mobilisation and is forced to take extraordinary steps (e.g. extending the age limit for volunteers ready to join the war), opting for a covert form of recruitment, like through the use of reservists.

The ministry said that the plane had been carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were to be released in a prisoner exchange. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for his country’s intelligence agency to determine what had happened and for an international investigation into the crash, while also accusing Russia of engaging in wartime propaganda over the episode. European leaders and judicial authorities met in the Hague on July 14 to coordinate investigations into Russian atrocities, with the sharing of evidence, prosecution strategy, and international war crimes expertise to investigators on the ground. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said.

Russian officials have blamed disruption on Ukrainian forces. But President Putin, who has all but squashed any opposition in his own country, will have taken note of how his autocratic neighbour in Belarus effectively crushed the protests there over the last two years. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of shelling some of those routes, and have rejected Russia’s calls for refugees to be evacuated to Russia or Belarus. Russia is committing possible war crimes in Ukraine, and Ukrainians are responding with their full military force.
European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. Alexei Kulemzin said Ukraine was behind the strike on the eastern Ukrainian city, which is currently under Russian occupation. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Invasion of Ukraine: How Russia Attacked and What Happens Next
Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Ukraine, with substantial help from the United States and NATO, is prepared to deter and defend against attack. In 2014 in eastern Ukraine, Moscow had to insert regular forces after hastily organized Ukrainians beat back Russian irregulars.

Urban warfare is particularly calamitous, as civilians who have not evacuated are often caught in the middle of battles that happen block-by-block. It’s a question of whether Ukraine has enough resources, financial resources, not just to keep going on the battlefield, but also to keep the country together at home. But until this week, Russia still recognised them as part of Ukraine. Ukrainian economic output and industry will likely be significantly disrupted. The myth of the invincible Russian military machine has evaporated in the space of a few weeks.
Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. "You could imagine a situation where [Putin] uses a nuclear weapon in order to force NATO into the conflict," Professor Fruehling said. "However, Putin also understands that Russia does not have military or economic capacity to keep waging this war in the long term," Dr Genauer said.

Abbott considered sending 'large military deployment' to Ukraine in wake of MH17 disaster
Kyiv does not expect Westerners to fight its battles, but it does seek military support. Given Putin's track record, there is no reason to rule out another invasion of Ukraine, Kofman said. Russia's invasion in Georgia 14 years ago offers a rough analogy for a similar operation in Ukraine, he said.


All too often countries defeat themselves over time by launching and then winning the wrong wars. For the United States, a Russian victory would have profound effects on its grand strategy in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. First, Russian success in Ukraine would require Washington to pivot to Europe.


Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that in 2014 “we were ready” to put nuclear weapons on alert. In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida. Putin could order Russian troops to enter separatist-held areas in the east in a mostly symbolic show of force.

The regime, led by a delusional and ageing dictator, is prone to irrational decision-making. "Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military." Putin’s already playing into this, trying to get other countries to say, “Look, we’re always dealing with Europe’s problems. This would culminate in a “new security order for Russia,” they write. A nuclear attack would completely destroy its target area and trigger a toxic radioactive fallout.
Counter-intuitively, preparing for a possible war with Russia is the best approach to prevent it. While the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 – though effectively torn to shreds by Russia – was not formally revoked at the Summit, any self-restrictions which NATO took on as part of the agreement should now be considered null and void. Crucially, Allies have finally attributed responsibility where it lies, calling Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” in their new Strategic Concept. February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world. Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe. "In both of these cases, whilst of course there are significant differences to the war in Ukraine, this tactic ultimately resulted in breaking the local populations' resistance."


They make a case all the time about sovereignty and territorial integrity. But, then again, I’m sure they’ll find some narrative to finesse it as they certainly don’t want to have Putin lose. This would be very negative for China, it would have all kinds of reverberations for China’s own claims against Taiwan. And for Xi personally, he has a lot invested in his relationship with Putin. This would raise questions about his judgment and about the costs to China of propping up Russia at the expense of other relationships. Putin doesn’t seem to have many internal threats at this particular juncture.


And nearly five months in, there’s no end in sight to the brutal conflict. There is no U.S. or NATO consensus to insert their own combat forces into Ukraine. One reason may be fear that direct combat could lead to a wider European war, perhaps even risking a Russian nuclear threat.

What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues. We pushed Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons that it had inherited from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. After eight years of fighting a Russian-backed breakaway insurgency in the east of their country they are now watching it being shelled, bombed and rocketed by their giant nuclear-armed neighbour. This would be good for NATO, and it would also open up greater possibilities for a U.S.-Turkish partnership in the Middle East. But it’s the fact that Ukrainians living in the occupied territories are being
forced to take Russian passports and Russian citizenship to be able to get basic payments for their jobs, pensions, et cetera.
To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain. What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues. "If he manages to kill Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government with a nuclear weapon, that may be a way for him to declare victory and then possibly withdraw." As Ukraine made breakthroughs on the battlefield, Mr Putin raised the stakes of the war by annexing Ukrainian land, ordering a partial military mobilisation and threatening nuclear retaliation. It was meant to be a swift so-called special military operation — Russian troops were to roll into Kyiv and Ukraine's government were to capitulate.

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