Notes

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Hungary signals 'major shift' in Ukraine funding stance; Russia claims it has taken control of Kharkiv village
"That would probably not be an end, though, that would be the state of active warfare declining, at least temporarily, and it becomes something closer to a frozen conflict that can heat up or cool down depending on the range of factors," he said. Not only have the Ukrainian defenders fended off a total conquest from Russia, they have also retaken parts of the country by launching well-organized, audacious counter-offensives in the east and south. It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.

Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy. Peskov added on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had received reports on the Donetsk attack and that Russia's "special military operation" — as it calls its invasion of Ukraine — would continue in order to "protect" people. If there was no clear successor, Mr Putin's departure could spur on a brutal power struggle among pro-war, right-wing nationalists, authoritarian conservatives and a murky anti-war movement. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more.
As fierce fighting continued, and videos spread of tanks rolling into Ukrainian territory, many on social media asked what Russia's president was thinking. Further east in Kramatorsk, in the eastern Donetsk region, the BBC's Eastern European Correspondent Sarah Rainsford said people did not expect such a full-on assault. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south.

"Over these five-day periods the number of military vehicle losses by Russia increased by 88% and the number of Russian tank losses increased by 95%. The number of Russian casualties over the same period also increased by 15%," the ministry noted. Data from the Ukrainian General Staff compared the period of January with the previous five-day period. It showed a trend of increased losses for Russia as offensive activity ticked up. "We mourn those who died at the hands of Ukrainian terrorists as a result of yesterday's shelling," he said. Both Russia and Ukraine deny the deliberate targeting of civilians, although thousands have died in missile and drone strikes over the last two years of war. The tightening of supply from Russia, following fears of disruption in European naphtha exports to Asia from Yemeni Houthis' attacks on ships in the Red Sea, are driving up naphtha prices and refining margins in Asia.

Ukraine invasion — explained
Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Describing 60 clashes yesterday, Zelenskyy said the most intense fighting was in the Avdiivka area, as well as in Bakhmut, Maryinka and Kupiansk. "There have been more than 50 Russian shelling incidents just from multiple rocket launcher systems, and also dozens of airstrikes and missile strikes," he said. Russian offensive activity is increasing in intensity, data collected by Ukraine's armed forces in mid-January confirms, Britain's Ministry of Defense said Sunday.


"But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme." "The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent," Mr OBrien says. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources".

Kremlin calls Donetsk market strike a 'monstrous act of terrorism'
Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Shortly before Russia invaded last February, less than a third of Ukrainians supported foreign boots on the ground in Ukraine. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine.

Ukraine wants to restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity while Russia, he believes, wants "to force the authorities in Kyiv to grant far-reaching autonomy or so-called special status" to eastern Ukraine. The cities of Izyum and Kupiansk, which Ukraine says were retaken on 10 September, were both key supply hubs for the Russian forces. The Russian offensive was preceded by artillery fire and there were injuries to border guards, the DPSU said.
The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. https://bagge-albrechtsen.mdwrite.net/most-russians-say-they-support-the-military-according-to-this-pollster-npr-1708030836 is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes. As such, many Ukrainians are against the war, with "no war" becoming a common slogan. But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war. Those who spoke foreign languages, especially English, have had even more job options.

Fire erupts at Russia’s Novatek Baltic Sea terminal after suspected Ukrainian drone attack
Never,” United States President Joe Biden said in Poland last week, a day after a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv. Both sides are now digging in as Moscow’s “special military operation”, which was intended to last a matter of days, grinds into another year of attritional warfare. Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar. For instance, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional organisation, mediated the negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan, with the contribution of other organisations and experts.

One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. When asked if Ukraine should give up part of its territory to achieve peace, Bush responded that this was a decision that the Ukrainians had to make. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all.
During his visit to the US in December, Zelensky was able to obtain an additional US$1.85 billion (£1.5 billion) security assistance package. Critically, this includes a Patriot air defence system – something Ukraine has long coveted. This might then also pave the way for other allies to deliver such weapons to Ukraine.

Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily. In the space of a fortnight, Natalie Taranec went from teaching at a school in Kyiv to making a desperate dash to the sanctuary city of Lviv and fleeing to another country. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets. "Poland will do everything to increase Ukraine's chances of victory in this war," Tusk said at a joint media briefing. “Even technologically advanced, wealthy states in the Middle East eventually reached a point where they’re lobbing missiles at civilian cities, openly using chemical weapons and fighting in waves — just people rushing across the field getting shot at,” Jensen said. Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way.
There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.

But despite Russia's strongman facing discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the partial mobilization of reservists, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down. "If the Russian spring offensive was successful … they could possibly take all of the area west and [to] the east of the Dnieper River, and then make a puppet state out of what's left of Ukraine," Professor Clarke added. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation." He added that the United States and the rest of Ukraine’s allies would continue to support them whether they opted for such an option, or chose to continue fighting. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus.
For now, Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains he will continue to fight to the bitter end. Ukraine's resistance and willingness to fight remains strong, but — if there is a Russian offensive on the horizon as some are predicting — their fortitude will once again be put to the test. Russia could make a push for more land or the flow of weapons to Kyiv could be halted, bringing forward a stalemate. With so much of Ukraine's fate still uncertain, analysts say all outcomes remain possible. Ask any analyst or observer how they think the war in Ukraine will play out, and they'll tell you their guess is only as good as the next offensive. "Leaving Ukraine [is] done with a heavy heart," she said as she packed her bags and prepared for a long drive to the border with her husband.


Russian energy company Novatek is likely to resume large-scale operations at its Ust-Luga processing complex and Baltic Sea terminal within weeks, following a suspected drone attack seen disrupting naphtha flows to Asia, analysts said on Monday. Thanking the diaspora for its support, including those who had come to fight for Ukraine, Zelenskiy said the words "I am Ukrainian" carried a special meaning, and hailed the "indomitability of our people." Denis Pushilin, head of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, told the Rossiya-24 news channel that 27 people have now died in the strike, and 26 are injured, news agency RIA Novosti said, reporting his comments. Russia and Ukraine traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend after another Russian oil terminal was attacked on Sunday, as were the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk and nine Ukrainian regions. Since the conflict broke out in 2014, Ukraine has had no access to that part of its border and Kyiv accuses Moscow of using it to send Russian troops and equipment to support separatist forces.

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