Notes

When will the Russia-Ukraine war end? Experts offer their predictions
So here’s an example of why a war should end quickly, but sometimes doesn’t. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control. Russia already controls most of Sievierodonetsk, Haidai said on Sunday morning, and if Ukrainian forces lose the city, fighting is expected to focus on neighbouring Lysychansk, from which 32 residents have been evacuated over the weekend despite heavy shelling. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Still, "given the durability of the Ukrainian resistance and its long history of pushing Russia back, the U.S. and Western powers do not believe that this will be a short war," CBS News reports. Emily Harding, a former National Security Council staffer, warned Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe should prepare for 8-10 years of economically disruptive conflict in Ukraine, Roll Call reports. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. It notes the building gives Ukraine a "localised defensive advantage" and says Russian forces will probably suffer significant losses if they attempt to assault the facility. He insisted after his visit that Ukraine would not cede any of the occupied territories in the south of the country to Russia, which occupies the bulk of the country’s coastal areas.
In addition, the Ukrainian government anticipates that it will continue to receive Western military support – and ideally, at even greater volume than now. “Ukraine cannot afford to stop now because it would lose one-fifth of its territory to Russia, including vital Black Sea trading ports, the industrial and mining area of the Donbas, and important tracts of agricultural land. This would make a future Ukrainian state less functional and prosperous,” said Shea, who is also a former deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges at NATO.

Which weapons will Washington send?
I think there is a chance that Ukrainians will push forward during the spring if they have integrated the tanks, but they may have to wait until they get the planes. If they get the plane to do the combined arms warfare at which Nato excels and which the Russians simply can’t do and which is a massive force multiplier. It may take a little bit longer, but it takes two sides to end the war. And the question is why would Russia, why would Putin ever agree? I mean, in my opinion, if he gives up Crimea, it will cost him his personal safety, you know, maybe his life, and he may be thrown in jail. Gideon Rachman That was Hein Goemans explaining why he’s interested in war and why he’s gloomy about the prospect that the conflict in Ukraine will end anytime soon.

With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. Ukraine's counteroffensive is likely to make some progress in the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but nowhere near enough to end the occupation.
When Ukraine retook Robotyne in August it was hoped that its forces would be able to cut the land corridor to Crimea, making Moscow's supply lines more complicated. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Russia is India's largest arms supplier, but the war in Ukraine has limited Moscow's ability to provide munitions. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today.

More weapons needed
But that gap in coverage is likely to become even more striking the longer the conflict continues, because the factors that make a long war in Ukraine seemingly inevitable are the same ones that make it unlikely to slip from the world’s collective radar. The problems could extend beyond Ukraine, he said, arguing that Europe could face another wave of immigrants from African and Middle Eastern countries previously reliant on grain exports from Ukraine if the war continued to disrupt maritime exports. The statements suggest the west believes Ukraine cannot achieve a rapid military breakthrough despite the anticipated arrival of fresh Nato-standard arms, while officials in the country have continued to call for rapid help. It came as the new head of the British army said British troops must prepare “to fight in Europe once again”.


Russia's invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine before dawn on 24 February 2022. The Ukrainian General Staff says settlements in the area - including Klishchiivka and Andriivka - are continuing to come under artillery and mortar fire. It notes the building gives Ukraine a "localised defensive advantage" and says Russian forces will probably suffer significant losses if they attempt to assault the facility. Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine.


We have no idea what the consequences of this will be long term or even in the near short term.” https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/five-ways-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-changed-uk-government-1708031266 is not when this war will end—because it won’t anytime soon—but where. In some ways, Ukraine was already in the midst of a long-running crisis. The country has been engaged in armed conflict with Russia since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, which even before Russia’s invasion last month had resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people, many of them civilians. That the war has now escalated beyond the two countries’ de facto border has raised the stakes of the conflict, threatening both Ukraine’s sovereignty and that of its neighbors, many of which are now justifiably asking whether they could be next.


The Russians are trying to teach the Ukrainians that the war is gonna be very costly by taking out their infrastructure and just punishing of civilians. And on the other hand is the west, which is telling the Russians this war is gonna be too costly because we have sanctions on you and your complete economy will implode. But back to the Ukrainians, there’s many other kind of examples where states have tried to punish the civilians in the hope to break their will. And in almost all cases, it’s had the opposite effect.


I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected. I just read another article in the New York Times about these people who are saying like, “Oh, Ukraine should negotiate and should make some kind of peace deal,” but these people are idiots. Do they think that Putin, after he has been successful and shown that he’s been a great leader, and he won against the mighty Nato alliance and all this force, that he’s gonna stop? How can you possibly believe that is true, particularly if he demonstrates that he can stand up to Nato and the west? How can you think this guy won’t come back and ask for more?


Here's my website: https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/five-ways-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-changed-uk-government-1708031266