Notes

The UK government's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
US officials have also pointed to an increase in Russia's social media "disinformation". The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". Gemma Tetlow, chief economist at IfG, says that there are potential opportunities for UK producers in markets like barley, wheat and gas. IfG's Mr Bartrum says that this uncertainty is likely to slow recovery from the pandemic. The EU imports more than a third of its nickel from Russia, 28% of fertilisers and 27% of its mineral fuels.

But when asked about the state of UK-Russia relations, Mr Wallace said they were "a lot better than 0%" after Friday's talks. Nato powers are already promising to build up their own forces in the alliance's eastern flank. The UK imported around 13% of its total fuel (oil, gas, LNG, electricity) from Russia in 2019. Another risk is that Sunak’s can-kicking over budgets postpones the serious investment needed in military supplies.
Analysts had hoped the cost-of-living squeeze would fade as pandemic restrictions are removed, although now warn the Russian invasion and western sanctions will add to inflationary pressures. Even sectors without direct trade links will be hit by supply chain disruption and rising prices if they depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian production of inputs. UK manufacturers are facing a sharp rise in costs as the Russian invasion of Ukraine undermines the progress made towards fixing global supply chains before the conflict broke out, economists have warned.

UK government's humanitarian response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: facts and figures
This is most likely to affect the two major pipelines that cross Ukraine to bring Russian gas to Europe.[17] An event such as this would imply localised disruption to the flow of Russian gas via Ukraine. In the most disruptive scenario Russia could turn off its supply of natural gas to Europe. If war broke out in Ukraine and Russian forces occupied large swathes of the country, many civilians might flee. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations.


Ms Batters said the shortage of crops would also affect meat production as farmers need it to feed their livestock. "The real danger is that farmers contract, they decide not to invest, they hold back from planting, and we produce less food," she said. The manufacturing trade body Make UK said about 3,800 firms exported goods to Russia while 1,200 brought in materials, despite only accounting for 0.8% of total UK goods exports and 2.1% of imports. “The recent shortages of components, such as microchips, could continue and expand into other areas as sanctions and export restrictions limit supply that feed into the wider supply chain,” Thornton added.

Russia-Ukraine War
While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. "But the extent to which that is possible is impacted by uncertainty because it requires significant long-term investment and that won't be worth doing if this is purely a temporary blip," she says. But despite limited overall trade, some parts of the UK economy are quite reliant on Russia.

The CEBR predicts that inflation will now peak at 8.7% next quarter and then stay twice as high as expected until the second half of 2023. The UK’s total energy demand fell by 22 per cent between 2000 and 2019, reflecting both a shift away from more energy-intensive industries and improvements in economy-wide energy efficiency. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe. The UK does not have significant direct trade links with either Russia or Ukraine, so our economy’s most direct exposure to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is via its impact on the global price of energy. In a scenario where there is relatively little disruption to energy supplies, the main impact on the UK and other European economies is comes from uncertainty on gas prices.
If gas and electricity prices stay at the current levels, the Resolution Foundation predicts that the energy price cap next winter will be almost £1,000 higher than the elevated level set to be introduced in April (£1,971). "We are all going to suffer, but it will hit poorer people more than the average person as they spend proportionately more on heating and food." Mr Sunak said that Russia's invasion "is creating significant economic uncertainty", but "it is vital that we stand with the people of Ukraine to uphold our shared values of freedom and democracy and ensure Putin fails". Computer programming and film and TV production also had a good start to the year, said Darren Morgan, ONS director of economic statistics.

Invasion of Ukraine
The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on our forecast for the UK economy comes primarily via the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, real incomes, consumption and imports. Higher oil prices feed into the fuel component of CPI prices directly, while the household utility component is adjusted for expected changes in wholesale gas and electricity prices every six months via the Ofgem price gap. https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/when-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-and-9-more-questions-about-russia-s-063b84b1-decc-49d7-9d46-8948a9006dc7 assume that wages do not rise to compensate for this bout of higher inflation which is driven by external forces. We already expected firms’ profit margins to be squeezed by other cost increases that were expected before the invasion. The UK does not have significant direct trade links with either Russia or Ukraine, so our economy’s most direct exposure to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is via its impact on the global price of energy. The UK’s total energy demand fell by 22 per cent between 2000 and 2019, reflecting both a shift away from more energy-intensive industries and improvements in economy-wide energy efficiency.


Mr Lavrov said he was disappointed with the talks, accusing Ms Truss of not listening to Russia's concerns and describing their conversation as "a dialogue between a deaf person and someone who was mute". But when asked about the state of UK-Russia relations, Mr Wallace said they were "a lot better than 0%" after Friday's talks. Mr Shogiu said the counter-proposals submitted by Nato and the US had now been reviewed and promised "our response will follow shortly". Western countries have rejected this and instead put forward other suggestions, such as cutting back nuclear weaponry. Security concerns have grown in recent days after Russia started huge military drills with neighbouring Belarus and was accused of blocking Ukraine's access to the sea. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

In line with the spirit of that pre-Russian invasion period, the original document was titled “Global Britain in a competitive age”. By restricting Russia’s access to much of its $600–700bn in foreign exchange reserves, this move significantly limits the central bank’s ability to stabilise the rouble as it had done in response to the initial sanctions. I offer my condolences and that of the UK to all Ukrainians for the lives lost due to these barbaric airstrikes. There is also expected to be a considerable jump in the prices we pay at the supermarket and petrol pump.
The union has written to the government to call for urgent action to help UK farmers produce enough food to keep supermarkets stocked and affordable. In addition, the price of gas - which is used to heat greenhouses and to make fertiliser - has soared. Some 30% of the world's wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia and exports will stop during the conflict, it says.


Here's my website: https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/when-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-and-9-more-questions-about-russia-s-063b84b1-decc-49d7-9d46-8948a9006dc7