Notes

How Does the War in Ukraine End?
It has delivered artillery, but not the longer-range rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for. Wars often do not end predictably, and a failure to achieve hoped-for victories often leads to a sudden change of government. Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep.


The main reason for the assessment that it suits Putin to hang in there is that over time western support for Ukraine will drift away. Indeed, https://anotepad.com/notes/nf7828pw was quite explicit about this in his press conference of 14 December. Ukraine has been unable to put itself in a position to force a decision on Russia. But even if the offensive had made more progress it would have been a tall order to put the Russians sufficiently in a corner that their choice was only between battlefield humiliation and a negotiated withdrawal. We also need to keep in mind that there have been some successes, including pushing back the Black Sea Fleet through the effective use of naval drones.

"This is a tripwire that would trigger the might of all Nato, including the US, UK and France." Nato defence chiefs have re-examined his lengthy speech of July 2021 and concluded they urgently need to reinforce Nato's eastern borders lest Putin is tempted to make a move on countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Eastern European countries, who fear they may be next in Putin's sights, are watching nervously for any Russian manoeuvres close to their borders. Kusti Salm, the permanent secretary at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, is one of those pushing for more military assistance to Ukraine. "But it might not destroy the Ukrainian government - provided it has made plans to set up a new government HQ, most likely in the western part of the country."

What History Says About Biden’s Power to Strike Back Against the Houthis
Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.


But it noted that US officials had said they were unaware of any such proposals and that they had no sign that the Russian president was serious about looking to bring his forces' invasion of Ukraine to a close. Commenting on an ongoing war is difficult, especially for someone not close to the front lines. This is why, as I noted in last year’s assessment, my preference is “to talk about trends, possibilities, and developments coming into view.” Wars pass through stages, as fortunes shift, and the challenges of supply and reinforcement change. Over time some possibilities become impossible, some quite likely, and new ones emerge. Of these the most unlikely, such as peace negotiations, can be worth discussing to understand why they are unlikely or what would need to change to make them likely.

Simple guide to Ukraine crisis in maps
However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated. Ukraine's position between Russia to the east and countries such as Poland and Romania to the west means it straddles both the European and Russian spheres of influence. As the scale of the attack became clear, and the Ukrainian military worked to respond, many questioned whether the country would be able to resist the military might of its neighbour.


Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian and financial resources. Ukraine’s most important backer has yet to set out a clear objective, beyond strengthening Ukraine to give it a stronger bargaining hand. America has spent nearly $14bn on the war so far, and Congress has just allocated a further $40bn. America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.


The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft. Army’s maneuver warfare school at Fort Benning, Georgia, said Western upgrades offer Ukraine the chance to dominate the close fight with Russian adversaries and conclude the tactical fighting to its advantage. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. But this winter, they’re expected to launch attacks across open plains, which would be harder to defeat, said Daniel Rice, a former U.S.

And that has direct consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine. "The price we pay is in money. While the price the Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become a more dangerous world for all of us." At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine.
The money is coming through and Kyiv is still holding steady, battered and bruised but determined to resist Russian aggression. Putin can’t keep his forces on the offensive all year long and now has to keep an eye out for new Ukrainian strikes on assets not only in Crimea (such as the recent hit on a large landing ship in the Black Sea port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea) but also in Russia proper. Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. There was, for example, a thread of continuity between the first and second world wars. To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.

It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons. Then, at its July, 2024 summit in Washington, NATO would invite Ukraine to join the Western alliance, guaranteeing the security of all territory controlled by the Ukrainian government at that point under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Yet I recently posed them to several top historians, political scientists, geopolitical forecasters, and former officials—because only in imagining potential futures can we understand the rough bounds of the possible, and our own agency in influencing the outcome we want. That would be a major Ukrainian victory, and that is exactly why Russians are fortifying Melitopol. Unlike in the case of Serbia, experts do not foresee a scenario in which the US-led Western alliance would actively attack Russia.
Russia’s allies like China – which has been a lukewarm friend to Putin in his war against Ukraine – have also been unable, or unwilling, to force him to the negotiating table. BBC correspondent James Waterhouse said Russia had increased its artillery and air strikes as well as missile attacks - gaining ground mile by mile in Luhansk while the Ukrainians are forced to retreat. Russia's invasion plan has not gone entirely to plan - Britain's Defence Intelligence says hundreds of Russian troops have been killed and resistance is stiff - but it is progressing.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. The West could — as Ukraine has sought — supply even more sophisticated weapons, faster, in the hope of convincing Russia that it cannot win. Anything that generated any momentum would certainly change the context. Informing ambassadors of humanitarians’ efforts to deliver aid across the country, Mr. Rajasingham said that last week, the 100th interagency convoy for 2023 reached Chasiv Yar, in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war.
For now, such cracks in the West are contained by the mantra that the future is for Ukrainians to decide. Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide. We are as strong as you are united,” Mr Zelensky told a meeting at Davos.

But even if this occurs, that doesn’t mean the war itself will end with Putin’s downfall. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures. As we learnt more it also became apparent that the demands of close coordination of complex operations in tough conditions were beyond fresh units that had not quite enough training. “The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said.
The bill, which will funnel support to Ukraine for about the next five months, includes some $6bn budgeted for armoured vehicles and air defences. With no end in sight to the fighting, the US is sending more military, economic and humanitarian aid. The end of fighting in the southern port city of Mariupol has freed up Russian troops for redeployment elsewhere and allowed them to intensify their onslaught in the east. After eight years of fighting a Russian-backed breakaway insurgency in the east of their country they are now watching it being shelled, bombed and rocketed by their giant nuclear-armed neighbour. The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement.

Many were so badly beaten and abused in detention that this acted as a major deterrent to further protest. Resistance has already begun, with a nationwide call-up of men of fighting age and 18,000 automatic weapons being handed out to the citizens of Kyiv, in addition to the uniformed army and reserves who are already putting up stiff resistance. "In the short term," says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. President Putin has clearly spent months closeted in isolation, studying his defence chiefs' plans to take over his West-leaning Slavic neighbour and bring it back into Moscow's orbit.

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