Notes

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia
I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected. I just read another article in the New York Times about these people who are saying like, “Oh, Ukraine should negotiate and should make some kind of peace deal,” but these people are idiots. Do they think that Putin, after he has been successful and shown that he’s been a great leader, and he won against the mighty Nato alliance and all this force, that he’s gonna stop? How can you possibly believe that is true, particularly if he demonstrates that he can stand up to Nato and the west? How can you think this guy won’t come back and ask for more?


It also said it was not told about the number of vehicles, routes and forms of delivery of the prisoners. Ukraine confirmed an exchange of prisoners was scheduled for Wednesday but one did not take place. When asked why the plane was shot down and whether it was a deliberate act, the Kremlin spokesperson said, "You should have the phone number of President Zelenskyy's administration. Call and ask this question." Ukraine has not admitted responsibility for the crash, in which all on board died, and called for an international investigation into the incident, accusing Russia of "playing" with the lives of POWs. " https://etextpad.com/ is absolutely not a message to the NATO countries," Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters, when asked what "message" is conveyed by Putin's upcoming visit to the Kaliningrad, a region bordered by EU and NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

More than a year of fighting
More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve. The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines. It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.

"The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. That would make him the president who not only lost the war but also large parts of his country. It would not be the first time Russia has employed such a strategy of attrition, turning an active conflict into a frozen one for lack of a better solution.
Still, "given the durability of the Ukrainian resistance and its long history of pushing Russia back, the U.S. and Western powers do not believe that this will be a short war," CBS News reports. "The U.K. foreign secretary estimated it would be a 10-year war. Lawmakers at the Capitol were told Monday it is likely to last 10, 15, or 20 years — and that ultimately, Russia will lose." This is an example that you see occurring over and over again.

What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel
The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops.


This brilliant plan was supposedly designed to win the war quickly. Something very different about the first world war, in that very Crown Council, these leaders already recognised that in case of failure there would be a domestic revolution and they could not tolerate that possibility and therefore kept fighting. So here’s an example of why a war should end quickly, but sometimes doesn’t.


One ex senior minister suggested to me that there was a generational divide between those who had lived with the threat of the Cold War era, and those who had not. The former minister, currently a serving Conservative MP, pointed out that the prime minister grew up without that existential threat. The overall effect means Finland can muster one of Europe's largest armies.

It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops. In addition, the Ukrainian government anticipates that it will continue to receive Western military support – and ideally, at even greater volume than now. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too.
Some analysts say Kyiv would lack leverage if it entered peace negotiations now, with the result likely being “peace” as dictated exclusively by Moscow. Emily Harding, a former National Security Council staffer, warned Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe should prepare for 8-10 years of economically disruptive conflict in Ukraine, Roll Call reports. If the U.S. sticks with Ukraine and supports its shadow war, "Russian casualties will be through the roof," former CIA Afghanistan operations chief Michael Vickers told the same CSIS audience. "This could be an insurgency that is bigger than our Afghan one in the 1980s in terms of things we could provide them that would really hurt Russia." Hein Goemans I’m relatively optimistic about it, but I mean, if Trump wins in 2024, things will change. I think that Great Britain will stand squarely behind Ukraine and as many people in the west.


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