Notes

Equipped Conflict and also Earlier Childhood Rise in 12 Low- and also Middle-Income Nations around the world.
In fact, this archaeological research may have come to the same conclusion as some contemporary demographers that demography can be remarkably hard to predict, at least in the short term. It also fits with evidence from biology that primates, and particularly humans, may be adapted to environmental variability, leading to associated demographic stochasticity. This evidence of the fluctuating nature of human demographic patterns may be of considerable significance in understanding our species' evolution, and of understanding what our species future demographic trajectories might be. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.In this paper, we test the hypothesis of the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkan Early Neolithic (6250-5300 BC) by applying the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to the set of more than 200 new radiocarbon dates from Serbia. The results suggest that there was an increase in population size after the first farmers arrived to the study area around 6250 BC. This increase lasted for approximately 250 years and was followed by a decrease in the population size proxy after 6000 BC, reaching its minimum around 5800 BC. This was followed by another episode of growth until 5600 BC when population size proxy rapidly declined, reaching the minimum again around 5500 BC. The reconstructed intrinsic growth rate value indicates that the first episode of growth might have been fuelled both by high fertility and migrations, potentially related to the effects of the 8.2 ky event. The second episode of population growth after 5800 BC was probably owing to the high fertility alone. It remains unclear what caused the episodes of population decrease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.Large anthropogenic 14C datasets are widely used to generate summed probability distributions (SPDs) as a proxy for past human population levels. However, SPDs are a poor proxy when datasets are small, bearing little relationship to true population dynamics. Instead, more robust inferences can be achieved by directly modelling the population and assessing the model likelihood given the data. We introduce the R package ADMUR which uses a continuous piecewise linear (CPL) model of population change, calculates the model likelihood given a 14C dataset, estimates credible intervals using Markov chain Monte Carlo, applies a goodness-of-fit test, and uses the Schwarz Criterion to compare CPL models. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method using toy data, showing that spurious dynamics are avoided when sample sizes are small, and true population dynamics are recovered as sample sizes increase. Finally, we use an improved 14C dataset for the South American Arid Diagonal to compare CPL modelling to current simulation methods, and identify three Holocene phases when population trajectory estimates changed from rapid initial growth of 4.15% per generation to a decline of 0.05% per generation between 10 821 and 7055 yr BP, then gently grew at 0.58% per generation until 2500 yr BP. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.A principle of demographic uniformitarianism underpins all research into prehistoric demography (palaeodemography). This principle-which argues for continuity in the evolved mechanisms underlying modern human demographic processes and their response to environmental stimuli between past and present-provides the cross-disciplinary basis for palaeodemographic reconstruction and analysis. Prompted by the recent growth and interest in the field of prehistoric demography, this paper reviews the principle of demographic uniformitarianism, evaluates how it relates to two key debates in palaeodemographic research and seeks to delimit its range of applicability to past human and hominin populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.The increasingly better-known archaeological record of the Amazon basin, the Orinoco basin and the Guianas both questions the long-standing premise of a pristine tropical rainforest environment and also provides evidence for major biome-scale cultural and technological transitions prior to European colonization. PI3K inhibition Associated changes in pre-Columbian human population size and density, however, are poorly known and often estimated on the basis of unreliable assumptions and guesswork. Drawing on recent developments in the aggregate analysis of large radiocarbon databases, here we present and examine different proxies for relative population change between 1050 BC and AD 1500 within this broad region. By using a robust model testing approach, our analyses document that the growth of pre-Columbian human population over the 1700 years prior to European colonization adheres to a logistic model of demographic growth. This suggests that, at an aggregate level, these pre-Columbian populations had potentially reached carrying capacity (however high) before the onset of European colonization. Our analyses also demonstrate that this aggregate scenario shows considerable variability when projected geographically, highlighting significant gaps in archaeological knowledge yet also providing important insights into the resilience of past human food procurement strategies. By offering a new understanding of biome-wide pre-Columbian demographic trends based on empirical evidence, our analysis hopes to unfetter novel perspectives on demic expansions, language diversification trajectories and subsistence intensification processes in the Amazonian biome during the late Holocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.This paper responds to a resurgence of interest in constructing long-term time proxies of human activity, especially but not limited to models of population change over the Pleistocene and/or Holocene. While very much agreeing with the need for this increased attention, we emphasize three important issues that can all be thought of as modifiable reporting unit problems the impact of (i) archaeological periodization, (ii) uneven event durations and (iii) geographical nucleation-dispersal phenomena. Drawing inspiration from real-world examples from prehistoric Britain, Greece and Japan, we explore their consequences and possible mitigation via a reproducible set of tactical simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.
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