Notes

Why is Russia invading Ukraine and will there be a war? %%
Russian forces could move to secure a canal that Kyiv shut down in 2014. The closing of the canal has created a chronic water supply problem on the Russian-held peninsula. Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists. While the world's attention has focused on Russia's troop buildup on its land border with Ukraine, Moscow also has expanded its naval power near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval infantry, experts said. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus.

One reason may be fear that direct combat could lead to a wider European war, perhaps even risking a Russian nuclear threat. Putin watchers believe he will seek to extend control of the four regions that he has declared to be part of Russia, not just in Donbas, but towards the key city of Zaporizhzhia. They’ve also criticised the US and NATO for giving Ukraine weapons, saying that it’s encouraging rebel areas.
A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would create one of the largest refugee crises in the world, with as many as five million people displaced, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Wednesday. The Russian offensive was preceded by artillery fire and there were injuries to border guards, the DPSU said. Russian military convoys have crossed from Belarus into Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region, and from Russia into the Sumy region, which is also in the north, Ukraine's border guard service (DPSU) said. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time".

Explosions heard across the country
Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014. But Russia's military doctrine prescribes achieving surprise and shock; maximum use of all lethal force available; rapid tempo of operations; and quick achievement of objectives. US President Joe Biden has ruled out sending troops even to shepherd American citizens out of Ukraine because he said if Russians and Americans end up fighting that would be World War III. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated that over the weekend, saying Ukraine is not a part of NATO and therefore not entitled to NATO's one for all, all for one protection.

First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014. Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit. Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked war has been a disaster for itself and the country it was unleashed on. Dissent in Russia is highly risky, with jail sentences handed out for anyone spreading "fake news" about the Russian military.
As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. There is no doubt Ukraine's armed forces will fight to the death if attacked but the superior firepower of Russia's military means they could be quickly overwhelmed. Blaming Nato's expansion eastwards is a Russian narrative that has gained some ground in Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato turn the clock back to 1997 and remove its forces and military infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion.

Ukraine is shoring up its defences as Russia conducts live fire drills near its border
For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States. Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, especially to Europe.


At the same time, Russian officials continue to insist the troop buildup is just part of military exercises, even as their rhetoric grows more belligerent. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. Cyber attacks will likely play a part in any offensive such as by targeting critical infrastructure like power supplies.

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But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-russia-invading-ukraine-newsround.html over sanctions that affect the transport of prohibited goods to Kaliningrad illustrate this problem. There is still a vast gap in military power between the two nations, however.


A serviceman with Ukraine's military forces walks along a trench on the front line with Russia-backed separatists, not far from Novoluhanske, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, on Feb. 16. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Russia is a major exporter of rare-earth minerals and heavy metals — such as titanium used in airplanes. Russia supplies about a third of the world's palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters, and its price has soared in recent weeks over fears of a conflict. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia.

But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe.
In such a scenario, Russian public opinion could turn against Putin. "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. The United States and its allies can consider expanding the companies subject to the current sanctions or imposing more severe restrictions such as full blocking sanctions, which include an asset freeze and prohibit all transactions. More structurally, it has broken the entire security architecture built patiently on the continent over many decades, including international commitments agreed in the last 30 years.


But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Fighting between Russian, pro-Russian and Ukrainian forces is still ongoing in the region.

In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida. The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. Whether people would be flocking into recruitment offices is open to question.
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