Notes

When will the war in Ukraine end? And 9 more questions about Russia's invasion : NPR
Equally, Ukraine’s dependence on their weapons gives Western powers a say in how Kyiv plots its strategy. In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.


Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts — backed by the West — to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland. https://pastelink.net/f4agdzfo told me, "every step that Ukrainians took towards Europe came as a direct result of Russian aggression." However, it is hard to imagine Russia striking very far west, given the painfully slow advance around Bakhmut and the catastrophic attempt to capture Vuhledar.

Here Are 3 Ways to End the War in Ukraine. One Might Actually Work.
One of Ukraine's main aims is to sever the Russian "land bridge" that stretches from Russia and across the occupied part of southern Ukraine to Crimea, but that's an area where Russia's fortifications are among the heaviest. Ukraine's counteroffensive is likely to make some progress in the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but nowhere near enough to end the occupation. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops.

Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It could prove the best chance to achieve the victory that Ukraine and the democratic world need soon, while making it both Putin- and Trump-proof. As the world’s biggest marketplace, Europe has long punched below its weight. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. He said there is little the West can do to stop Ukrainians from trying to take back all of their country’s territory currently held by Russia — including parts that Moscow has formally, though illegally, annexed.
European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. There was, for example, a thread of continuity between the first and second world wars. To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed. But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. The danger lay in a humiliating peace treaty imposed on defeated Germany.

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?
Given what’s at stake — not just the survival of Ukraine but of the whole international order — that would be risky. It would make success dependent on events we cannot predict or control, including on the outcome of elections in Western countries, including the United States. And while we have no right to tell Ukrainians to stop fighting before their country is whole, we also have no right to expect them to keep fighting at any cost. But he must also worry about the price to be paid in the post-Ukraine war strategic environment, in terms of his global ambitions, if China entirely turns its back on the West. While the Russian economy has had many ups and downs and only enjoyed robust growth for a few years in the early 2000s, the Chinese economy experienced three decades of rapid, unbroken growth—until recently, that is. Now Xi faces deep economic malaise, with an investment-driven, state-controlled model that no longer works.


Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June.


Our explainer tackles this question - among others - and takes the conflict back to basics. Ukraine's position between Russia to the east and countries such as Poland and Romania to the west means it straddles both the European and Russian spheres of influence. Its military, he says, faces an enormous challenge to defend its vast border. From the early panic in Ukraine's cities, to the broader context that led us here, this is your guide to understanding day one of the invasion. If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or comment or you can email us at


It has a homegrown war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes there is a good chance Russia can sustain the conflict for years to come. “Serbia’s war against Kosovo was ended because outside powers got involved,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to NATO’s bombardment of Serbia in 1999. “The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]”. Also, while a ceasefire is desirable, it isn’t absolutely necessary to make progress on substantive issues, such as the status of the Donbas and Crimea. Many negotiations, from Bosnia to Colombia, have been held while the fighting continued. So even if there’s no ceasefire, the parties can still agree on other issues.

At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. The war, which ended with the Chechen capital razed to the ground and Chechen resistance largely stamped out, left a lasting imprint on Putin’s approach to regions seeking to break away from Russian influence, according to analysts. Critically, this includes a Patriot air defence system – something Ukraine has long coveted.
For the past two months, Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian infrastructure, devastating the country’s power grid and putting many basic services from healthcare to sanitation at risk. Apart from destruction, this campaign has achieved virtually nothing positive for Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his main goal is to drive all Russian troops out, to "de-occupy our whole territory". However, it now appears to have limited its ambitions to securing land in Ukraine's east and south.

Whatever scenario comes next, there is little doubt that Russia will enter a period of faster decline. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. Never,” United States President Joe Biden said in Poland last week, a day after a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv.
It is possible that the war could end with a peace deal, though a settlement is difficult because of Russia's and Ukraine's different goals and what they both view as their rightful territory. However, despite the battlefield defeats, Russia still has destructive military capabilities it can call upon, and it has launched missile and drone blitzes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and launched a bloody assault on the city of Bakhmut. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma.

These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. That became part of what is now collectively called the Minsk agreements. A late March NPR/Ipsos poll found that most Americans think Biden has not done a good job of handling the war in Ukraine.
"This data points towards a steady increase in the intensity of Russian offensive activity across the front over the past two weeks. A key enabler for this is highly likely the freezing ground conditions, which allows cross-country movement of armoured vehicles," it noted. Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed, pro-Russian "Donetsk People's Republic," said the strike had been carried out "on Sunday, when it is most crowded there." The Russia-installed head of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, said on Telegram Monday that there would be a day of mourning for the dead.

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