Notes

The consequences of Russias invasion of Ukraine for international security NATO and beyond
Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.

Russian forces have now created a land bridge into Ukraine from Crimea, which they invaded in 2014. Some evacuees from this region told BBC colleagues of their happiness that Russia recognised Donetsk and Luhansk. But we don't know if there are foreigners there, covertly working with the Ukrainian army, particularly in light of the calls from Ukraine's president for foreigners to go and help. Ukraine's President has urged foreigners to join what he called an "international brigade" but we don't know the numbers of those who've responded. In terms of how it will be accelerated, Poland has offered to be a logistics hub for the deployment. Western nations are acutely aware of the need to quicken this, with Ukraine concerned that it's running out of ammunition.


Turkey, a country with the second largest standing army among NATO members, brokered a deal on July 14 with Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. European leaders and judicial authorities met in the Hague on July 14 to coordinate investigations into Russian atrocities, with the sharing of evidence, prosecution strategy, and international war crimes expertise to investigators on the ground. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. Gen Barrons believes that while Russia has the forces in place to defeat Ukraine's army eventually, that could be replaced by a "very resilient insurgency".

There's an old axiom that military plans never survive the first contact with the enemy. Some sanctions will take weeks, even months to bite, but some are now hitting Russia's currency, stocks, the wealth of the rich oligarchs and sadly the lives of the poorest. As Russia invaded Ukraine, a first tranche of sanctions came into force in one capital after another. They were welcomed by Ukrainians but mocked too as simply not sufficient. We saw some scenes of celebration in areas of eastern Ukraine which have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014. History tells us military coups and invasions have conquered by taking over television stations and presidential palaces.

What does Ukraine want?
It has also changed conscription laws, foreseeing the need to bolster its forces, which are dwarfed in size by Russia's but are more highly trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal. Ukrainian military officials have conceded that hopes and expectations of a great breakthrough in the counteroffensive were not met. Ukrainian defenders have geographical scale and a military hardened by seven years of fighting in eastern Ukraine. By avoiding Russian efforts at rapid encirclement, Ukraine could trade space for time. Stingers could down Russian airlifters and helicopters providing logistics support to forward fighters.

Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea. The United States and its allies may further reinforce NATO's eastern flank with major ground and air units. Russia has also purposefully raised the level of risk for the possible use of nuclear weapons, the main goal primarily being to discourage Western Allies from offering military support to Ukraine and to instil fear in decision-makers. A long-held taboo that made an actual application of nuclear force unthinkable has been verbally discarded.
This is backed by exercises (at least two this year) openly testing the Russian military’s ability to fire nuclear warheads at Western targets and protect Russia from possible counter-strikes. The Russian president has even shown his willingness to bring Belarus into the nuclear equation. Such brinkmanship has contributed to the return of nuclear arms into the power competition on a global stage. The West looked on in horror on February 24 as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since the war broke out, bloody fighting and attacks on civilians have resulted in at least tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of 12 million Ukrainians abroad or within the country, and at least $100 billion of infrastructure damage.

World condemns Putin
At its Summit in Madrid in June 2022, NATO recognised this and offered an upgraded package of support. Ukrainians (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians. Evident atrocities fitting the criteria of war crimes are being perpetrated and accompanied by genocidal talk on Russian state TV.


A succession of Western leaders, including President Joe Biden, have made the complex journey to Kyiv. Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked war has been a disaster for itself and the country it was unleashed on. So far, it has achieved little more than exposing the brutality and inadequacy of the Russian military. He has spoken of the capture of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, as a "significant result for Russia". The Sea of Azov, inside the Kerch Strait, "has become Russia's internal sea", he declared, pointing out that even Russian Tsar Peter the Great did not manage that. When Vladimir Putin sent up to 200,000 soldiers into Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he wrongly assumed he could sweep into the capital, Kyiv, in a matter of days and depose the government.

Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?
One reason may be fear that direct combat could lead to a wider European war, perhaps even risking a Russian nuclear threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that in 2014 “we were ready” to put nuclear weapons on alert. In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has soldiers, tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles in positions on Ukraine's northern, eastern and southern borders. In response, Ukraine's foreign minister accused Russia of starting a full-scale war.


By joining NATO, Ukraine could obtain a much greater degree of security. Each of NATO's 30 members would be obliged to defend Ukraine if it were attacked. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West. He has lobbied aggressively for NATO to expedite Ukraine's request for membership.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine give details of their own losses, so reliable numbers are extremely difficult. While the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 – though effectively torn to shreds by Russia – was not formally revoked at the Summit, any self-restrictions which NATO took on as part of the agreement should now be considered null and void. The UN human rights commissioner says at least 8,006 civilians have died and 13,287 have been wounded in 12 months of war, but the true number is likely to be substantially higher. The regime, led by a delusional and ageing dictator, is prone to irrational decision-making. But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested.
Second, he thinks that a western-leaning Ukraine is dangerous for Russia. He has called the possibility of Nato membership for Ukraine a “red line” for the Kremlin. Third, he wants to show that popular revolutions such as the one that took place in Kyiv in 2014 do not succeed in the long run. Hours before the attacks began, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made a dramatic televised plea to the people of Russia, saying he wanted to speak to them directly after Mr. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-ukraines-neutral-status.html had rejected his phone call. Explosions thundered in the dim light before dawn, minutes after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia cynically declared the start of a “special military operation” to “demilitarize” Ukraine but not occupy the country.

To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says.
Sweden and Finland - though neither of them Nato members - joined the alliance's emergency summit last week, and the US has increased its troop numbers in countries like Poland. Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. Russia is bound to be a weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future. February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world.

The new NATO Strategic Concept, which was adopted in Madrid on 29 June, explicitly takes NATO in that direction (para. 21). The UK will ban hi-tech exports to Russia and sanction people and companies in the defence and energy sectors. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. That's what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank.
Although airstrikes away from the frontlines are now “limited,” Cancian says, Russia still fires missiles every couple of weeks at cities. Last month, two residential buildings in Kyiv were hit as the G7 summit got underway in Germany, in what the city’s mayor Vitali Klitschko called a “symbolic” attack. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.

Here's my website: https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-ukraines-neutral-status.html