Notes

Kremlin Denies Report Putin Reached Out to the US About Ending Ukraine War
It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

It could prove the best chance to achieve the victory that Ukraine and the democratic world need soon, while making it both Putin- and Trump-proof. There is a difference between keeping options open, perhaps seeing what response tentative, private probes might get, and going public with a concrete proposal. At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America. But another McCarthy concession — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv.
A U.S. intelligence report revealed Russia had lost 87 percent of its pre-invasion forces, or 315,000 troops and with a renewed mobilization expected after the election showing Putin's willingness to sacrifice his own people. In December, he approved spending that will see the military take up around 30 percent of Russia's total budget in 2024. "With the stalled counter-offensive, there is widespread pessimism about Ukraine's chances to defeat Russia and regain the occupied territories," Peter Rutland, professor of Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at Wesleyan University, in Middletown, Connecticut, told Newsweek. "However, that does not mean that there are likely to be serious peace talks and a possible end to the war in 2024.

When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.
"A long-term negotiated settlement also seems highly unlikely. Having spent so much blood, treasure, and prestige on this war, Putin politically cannot afford anything less than a decisive victory," said Gregory Vitarbo, professor of history at Meredith College, Raleigh, North Carolina. "I believe that the war may stretch well into 2025 and the international support for both sides would prolong the war as neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve major breakthroughs and declare victory," Gok told Newsweek. Expediting its membership would be a heavy lift for the EU and such an aid package would be costly to the Europeans and Americans, so they’d have to decide how much they were willing to offer to end Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II.

In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West. The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense. Mark Temnycky, a Ukrainian-American journalist and nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center said that delays in 2023 allowed Russia to fortify positions in the south and east of Ukraine, regroup and re-strategize. At this point, Russia could call for a ceasefire to retain what it has, and run a defensive campaign to consolidate its battered military.
Inflation in the Eurozone was 8.1 percent in May, the highest since 1997, and energy prices exploded. Within days of the Russian invasion, European natural gas prices had jumped nearly 70 percent, while oil hit $105 a barrel, an eight-year high. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates that the French, German, and Italian economies (the three largest in Europe) will contract for the rest of this year, with only France’s registering an anemic 0.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter. No one can know for sure whether Europe and the United States are headed for a recession, but many economists and business leaders consider it likely. They’ve just begun to feel the economic blowback from the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, pain that will only increase.

Kremlin denies report that Putin reached out to the US about talks on ending the war in Ukraine
A Christmas Eve story in the New York Times claimed that Putin might be trying to find a way out. He was reported to have sent messages through “multiple channels” since September that he was prepared to do a deal, including freezing the fighting along the current front lines. There have been a number of proposals in circulation, from China’s last February and those later from the BRICS countries. They are problematic for Putin because if taken seriously they would demand far more of Russia than Ukraine (as Zelensky was quick to notice).


From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies.

All that happened this week in Russia-Ukraine war
Conversely, that roughly tracks with the results of an Ipsos poll from January, which found about 7 in 10 people in Western countries think they should "avoid getting involved militarily" in Ukraine, while also "supporting sovereign countries when they are attacked by other countries." In response, companies on both sides of the Atlantic announced plans to restart production lines for artillery shells and other weapons considered somewhat arcane until recently. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea. The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft.

“Serbia’s war against Kosovo was ended because outside powers got involved,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to NATO’s bombardment of Serbia in 1999. "Ukraine may shift tactics to deal with a downturn in Western aid, but I don't believe they will surrender." Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year.
The problem with the EU lies with Hungary’s veto of any funds to Ukraine, but either this will soon be overcome or, even if not, there are workarounds that will lead eventually to the desired result. The problem in the US reflects Republican efforts to tie support for overseas causes to action to stop immigrants coming in from Mexico. There is enough money left for one more military aid package, but then it depends on a new deal. The bigger question was whether the crisis would destabilise the regime. Putin dithered, not dealing with the dispute while in its early stages, and then could only be rescued by doing a deal with people he’d just called traitors, albeit one on which he later reneged (as with so many of his deals).


We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-anti-ship-missiles-is-uk-sending-to-ukraine.html , Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea.


That effort would require extensive U.S. involvement as well, and could serve as a springboard for China to assert itself as a diplomatic power, as the United States did during peace talks after World War I. One year ago, Russia launched a war that many never expected it to wage and assumed it would quickly win against a cowed Ukraine and its allies. For a war that has defied expectations, those questions might seem impossible to answer.


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