Notes

UK citizen army: Preparing the 'pre-war generation' for conflict
Ukraine, after all, is situated at the doorstep of the European Union and NATO, both of which have a vested interest in ensuring that the country’s sovereignty is maintained and that Russia’s aggression is curtailed. The longer the Russian invasion continues, the greater the refugee crisis that Europe is likely to face, and the riskier the situation becomes for NATO, which has gone to great lengths to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with Russian troops. Russian officials often criticise Nato military support for Ukraine and in an interview last week with the BBC the country's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, cited the prospect of Ukraine joining the Western alliance as a reason for the invasion in the first place.

For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war "in one day" if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. “The united Western alliance which supports Ukraine in this war is getting less united and cohesive all the time. And they get plenty of ammunition from the North Koreans or elsewhere. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. "My sense is that even without outside support, the Ukrainians will continue to fight," she told Newsweek.
The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. The government is replaced with a pro-Moscow puppet regime. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.

Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in just 2 days — it now says the war will last at least 3 years
Hein Goemans Well, some people would say yes, because it makes clear that this is a war caused by a commitment problem that no peace deal will stick. But more generally it’s because the underlying dynamic is different from the short war. Everybody in Britain knows that it started in 1914 and ended in 1918. But one of the interesting things is that in November 1914, there was a Crown Council in Germany with the chancellor, with the Kaiser, William the Last, as I like to refer to him, and the chief of staff where they all agreed they can’t win. What happened there is that they had the Schlieffen Plan.


There can be secessionist movements in the administrative units in Russia, or it can be a long kind of peaceful stalemate or ceasefire along the 1991 border where there’s occasionally shots fired, but no dramatic incursions and no dramatic battles. Hundreds of thousands of people are gonna die and for really no good reason. I mean, there is a deal available, but Russia can’t take it. Domestic politics and they still have plans and ideas and you know, they think they can teach Ukrainians some new information or hope that the west will fall apart. Hein Goemans Well, Russia’s best hope is breaking up the western support for Ukraine, and that can happen in a variety of ways, right?

Is Russia still using the concept of denazification as justification for the war? — Anya
Ukraine expert Terrell Jermaine Starr recently told me, "every step that Ukrainians took towards Europe came as a direct result of Russian aggression." Children look out from a carriage window as a train prepares to depart from a station in Lviv, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022. Says more than 8 million Ukrainians fled to Europe since the start of the invasion. But https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/the-lessons-military-planners-are-learning-from-the-ukraine-invasion-and-what — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, also called for sending long-range missiles to Ukraine alongside advanced Gray Eagle and Reaper drones.


Russians go to the polls from March 15, less than a month after the full-scale invasion marks its second anniversary. Both sides seem resigned to a long conflict, with the high numbers of casualties, equipment losses and economic damage since it started on February 24, 2022 set to escalate. By committing this terrorist attack, the Ukrainian leadership has showed its true colors — it neglected the lives of its citizens. According to the previously reached agreement, this event was to take place in the afternoon at the Kolotilovka checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian border.


Sanctions, meanwhile, have hurt Russia’s economy and have cut it off from supply chains crucial to sustaining Putin’s war machine. It came as the new head of the British army said British troops must prepare “to fight in Europe once again”. “There is now a burning imperative to forge an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle,” Gen Sir Patrick Sanders said, writing to his charges about the challenges they face. Ukrainian officials have spoken bluntly in recent days about the need to boost the supply of heavy weapons to the country if Russian forces there are to be defeated. The prime minister, who visited Ukraine's capital on Friday, said supplies of weapons, equipment, ammunition, and training to Kyiv needed to outpace Moscow's efforts to rearm itself. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war.

In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. You can get in touch with Brendan by emailing or follow on him on his X account @brendanmarkcole. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons. A widely anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in June aimed at recapturing Russian-occupied territory, has not made the progress Kyiv's allies wanted.
A senior Russian lawmaker said Ukrainian military intelligence had been given a 15-minute warning before a Russian military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war entered an area where it was shot down on Wednesday. Ukraine’s forces remain on the defensive in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting continues in Sievierodonestsk. Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, said Russia was massing forces in an attempt to take full control of the city after weeks of fighting.

"The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". Moscow alleges that Ukraine shot down the Russian military transport plane, an Ilyushin-76, using Western missiles.
Read More: https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/the-lessons-military-planners-are-learning-from-the-ukraine-invasion-and-what