Notes

Army chief says people of UK are prewar generation who must be ready to fight Russia Military
The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on our forecast for the UK economy comes primarily via the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, real incomes, consumption and imports. Higher oil prices feed into the fuel component of CPI prices directly, while the household utility component is adjusted for expected changes in wholesale gas and electricity prices every six months via the Ofgem price gap. We assume that wages do not rise to compensate for this bout of higher inflation which is driven by external forces. We already expected firms’ profit margins to be squeezed by other cost increases that were expected before the invasion.

All of this disruption could massively increase the price of gas in Europe and, consequently, the UK. And both the UK’s domestic and foreign supplies of oil and gas are purchased at market prices which, as described elsewhere in this chapter, have risen sharply following the Russian invasion and international response. The Prime Minister said the UK was one of the first countries in Europe to send defensive weapons to help Ukraine. A source told BBC political correspondent Nick Eardley the meeting was "tempestuous" and ended early after Ms Truss said the ambassador should be "ashamed" of Russia's behaviour in Ukraine, adding that the Kremlin had lied repeatedly. RAF Lakenheath is expected to house B61-12 gravity bombs, which have a variable yield of up to 50 kilotons – more than three times the power of the atomic weapon dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
Ukraine had feared ahead of the winter that Russia was stockpiling weapons for large-scale attacks. "They're always trying to find a better way to break our air defence systems and make their attack more efficient," Oleksandr Musiyenko at Ukraine's Center for Military Legal Research told the BBC. But this was followed up with missile attacks, using different kinds of weapons in a bid to overwhelm and break through the city's defences. At least 32 people have died in Ukraine's capital in that time, 30 of them in one attack - on 29 December, when Russia launched one of the largest ever aerial attacks of this war.

For generations Britain has taken peace for granted. But a belligerent Putin could change all that
Our fiscal forecast captures the direct effect of lower equity prices on capital gains tax on the disposal of financial assets, though we do not assume any indirect wealth effect from lower equity prices on consumption and GDP. But we now see more clearly that, in a crisis, for the foreseeable future UK interests are aligned with the US and Europe, especially if China aligns itself more with Russia. The revival of NATO’s purpose and a unified western response have been a necessary if painful reminder of where UK interests truly lie.


That means “the price of items such as bread, baked goods and beer could rise”, The Times warned. “As well as the disruption to existing trade flows, sanctions are likely to damage British companies and banks with investments in Russia,” said the paper. The war will also “damage economic confidence as the global economy still labours to recover from Covid-19”. If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia.

Ukraine uses German-made Gepard anti-aircraft guns to tackle incoming drones, while Soviet-era Buk systems are used against cruise missiles and US-made Patriots against hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. Analysis published in Le Monde quotes Ukrainian officials who said Russia still has in its stockpile around 1,000 ballistic or cruise missiles, and is able to make around 100 more per month - such as Kalibrs and Kh-101s. Ukraine's intelligence service, the SBU, reported on Tuesday it had found and deactivated "two robotic online surveillance cameras" that it says were hacked by Russia to spy on Kyiv's defences and scout out targets.

Ukraine repelling three-pronged attack on Avdiivka, says UK
If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian revolution and Pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine, the United Kingdom has actively supported Ukraine and publicly condemned Russian actions. The UK supports Ukraine in becoming a member of the EU and NATO.[11][12] In this context London has implemented a series of sanctions and restrictive measures both in unilateral and multilateral formats. The war has strengthened political consensus that domestic renewables offer the cheapest and most secure form of energy.

The US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years amid a growing threat from Russia, according to a report. But that troops being sent to Europe "would defend Nato allies" - which includes countries like Poland who share a border with Ukraine. In a pre-dawn TV statement on Thursday, President Putin said Russia did not plan to occupy Ukraine, but demanded its soldiers lay down their weapons, before warning that Moscow's response would be "instant" if anyone tried to take on Russia. Ukraine has imposed martial law across the country, meaning the military has taken control temporarily, and traffic jams have built up as people attempt to flee Kyiv. The Ukraine conflict prompted a further revisiting of the 2021 ‘integrated review’ into foreign, security, defence and development policy.
The Prime Minister called Russia’s attack a “massive invasion”, and accused President Putin of having “attacked a friendly country without any provocation and without any credible excuses”. If President Putin decides to extend his attacks beyond Russia and into a neighbouring Nato state, such as Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, then the UK would be bound to go to war with Russia. But Ukraine is not a part of Nato, so the Western response to Russia’s invasion will initially focus on sanctions.


Carlos Del Toro, the US navy secretary, has urged the UK to “reassess” the size of its armed forces given “the threats that exist today”. Calls have recently come from senior figures on both sides of the Atlantic for the UK to be prepared in case of a potential war between Nato forces and Russia. Earlier this week, Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, the outgoing head of the British army, said its 74,000-strong ranks need to be bolstered by at least 45,000 reservists and citizens in order to be better readied for possible conflict. The Biden administration already has sent Ukraine $111bn in weapons, humanitarian assistance and other aid. Joe Biden will host the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, at the White House on 9 February to discuss aid to Ukraine.


Western materiel and equipment are being depleted at a rapid rate on the battlefields of Ukraine, leading to concerns that neither government nor industry have moved to the war-footing required for resupply. Serious discussion of defence spending, procurement and supply will be a new reality for the government for years to come. One risk is that leaks and arguments about the size of the army, military procurement and GDP percentages distract from a serious reckoning on what a new war in Europe means for the post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ that has benefited us all. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly changed the calculus in deciding where to invest and where to cut.

Nato has said it will listen to Russia’s concerns about wanting Ukraine not to join the organisation but its core values, of allowing each nation to choose its own path and defending all allies, will not be compromised. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv. "We divided our systems for different types of threats," he says, though of course this means relying on the West for ammunition and maintenance.
A year ago, in an attempt to ensure politicians plugged the gap with future spending, he warned that gifts of weapons to Ukraine would “leave us temporarily weaker”. Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the prime minister did not agree with comments made by Gen Sir Patrick Sanders in a speech on Wednesday, and was forced to insist there would be no return to national service, which was abolished in 1960. But it is far from clear that Russia, however aggressive Putin wants to be, would have the capacity to attack Nato member states. It is estimated by western intelligence that 315,000 Russians have been killed or injured in Ukraine and Moscow’s forces have failed repeatedly to break through its smaller neighbour. The anxiety about US support may be real, but the threat is not so significant.


At the same time, Trump looks set to sweep the Republican nomination after primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. The Democratic president said in a statement that the policies proposed would “be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country”. “This represents a continuation of Russia’s minor incremental gains whilst Ukraine focuses on active defence,” the report reads. “As the main supply route remains intact, and Ukrainian forces make local counter-attacks, Avdiivka is likely to remain in Ukrainian control over the coming weeks,” the report said.

Last week, Adml Rob Bauer, a senior Nato military official, said that private citizens should prepare for all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years that would require wholesale change in their lives. Ukraine has not seen attacks as heavy as this since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. During the speech in London, the army chief said the UK needed to broadly follow Stockholm’s example and take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”. “Hypothetical scenarios” involving possible future wars was “not helpful”, the No 10 spokesperson added, as the row opened up a rift between the Conservatives and the military at a time when cuts mean the army is at its smallest for more than 300 years. “When I look at this year as a European politician, the first thing that goes through our minds is Trump,” he said. Moscow and Kyiv traded fresh accusations over the plane that Russia says Ukraine’s forces shot down near the rivals’ border, killing 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war.


A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military. As Gen Sir Patrick Sanders stated several times in his speech on Wednesday, "Ukraine really matters". Russia's ambitions, he said, were not just about seizing territory but "about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically and symbolically". In a snow-covered park in Kherson, we meet a mobile air-defence team under an archway. Tymur says his team once destroyed an S-350 air defence missile system worth $136m. The US currently has warheads stationed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, under a Nato nuclear-sharing arrangement.

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