Notes

Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?
Al Jazeera spoke with five young Russians about their views on the invasion, and how the blowback has affected them. Sanctions have targeted banks, oil refineries, military and luxury product exports as well as members of the Russian regime and oligarchs with close ties to the Kremlin. Companies, too, have closed their doors in Russia, including fast-food giant McDonald’s which has temporarily shut its roughly 850 outlets. “I’m scared and hurt for my friends in Ukraine, who write to me ‘we’re going down into the bomb shelter’.

Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. For example, Novaya Gazeta blurred out the anti-war poster held up by a protester who interrupted a live news bulletin on Russian state TV. He gave no number of military losses, but disclosed that children of people within his "close" circle have fought for so-called private military companies, and a number of people "close to me" have died.
One pattern identified by pollsters is that most Russians say they would support peace talks to end the fighting. But what kind of guarantees they would give independent Ukraine is not yet clear. Polls suggest the majority of Russians, if not supporting the war, certainly do not oppose it. From fleeting impressions and conversations it is hard to draw firm conclusions. Sociologists and pollsters have tried to gauge opinion, but there is no freedom of speech or information in Russia so it is impossible to tell if people are being honest. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left Russia, including me and my BBC Russian colleagues.

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People have young children to look after, cancer and other illnesses to manage, aging parents to care for. It’s easy to imagine that they feel they can’t—or don’t want to—get arrested for opposing a distant war because of these kinds of responsibilities, even if it is being waged in their name. This war is based in no small part on dehumanizing Ukrainians as a group. You can be horrified by what Russia has done and is doing—as of course I am—and, at the same time, be concerned about dehumanizing a whole group of people in response. But, at the same time, I can understand why this might seem like sophistry to Ukrainians who have lost their homes, their friends, and seen their fellow Ukrainians tortured and murdered.


In mid-March, Aleksei Miniailo, a former social entrepreneur and current opposition politician, oversaw another telephone survey with the aim of trying to capture the effects of fear and propaganda on survey data. And that figure came from among those who agreed to participate at all; Miniailo suspected that the polls were not capturing a majority of the real antiwar sentiment, whatever its size. On some level, the data likely reflect an impulse, whether born of fear or passivity, to repeat approved messages rather than articulate your own. Even before the war, Russia was not the kind of place where you willy-nilly shared your political beliefs with strangers, let alone with those who called out of the blue.

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To understand the nature and composition of the pro-war majority, you need to dig deeper. Russian state television—instrumental in shaping public opinion—serves all these audiences. According to recent opinion polls, conducted by pollsters such as the Levada Centre which has offices in Moscow, 70-75% of respondents in Russia support the war with Ukraine. (These surveys were conducted before Mr Putin announced his mobilisation drive.) But these shocking figures are deceptive. Public opposition to the war can result in criminal prosecution, so people who are critical of the war and the regime are less likely to agree to speak to a pollster.

Mr Putin has a long record of masterfully manipulating public sentiment. Right now, they are relatively safe, but it’s a constant worry for my family. People have young children to look after, cancer and other illnesses to manage, aging parents to care for.
Galina Zapryanova, senior regional editor for the Gallup World Poll, told VOA that polling in Russia " has indeed become more challenging since 2022, but it is not impossible." “Analysts have learned to deal with and avoid authoritarian pressure,” said Koneva, founder of independent research agency ExtremeScan. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.


My feelings are mixed regarding the decision of our president. I got a government email saying that we had until March 14 to download all files from Instagram. We have VK (a Russian substitute for Facebook), but it’s not the same. I was thinking about leaving Russia, but there is the problem of money – ticket prices have increased tenfold, and also, there’s no one waiting for me over there. I have a colleague in my laboratory who is a reviewer at an open access science publisher.

For months, Russians of all political stripes tuned out American warnings that their country could soon invade Ukraine, dismissing them as an outlandish concoction in the West’s disinformation war with the Kremlin. War never leads to anything good and won’t this time either,” – says 18-year-old Tonya, wearing a bag with a hand-stitched "No war" sign. This apocalyptic narrative sets up Ukraine as the site of this great battle. "Law enforcement agencies and special services are working at the scene," he wrote.
Describing Ukraine's military success in a "small area" as a last-ditch attempt by Ukraine to break through to Crimea, President Putin explained that Russian forces decided to withdraw several metres into wooded areas "to save our lads". He went on to suggest Kyiv's main motive is to show the West that it needs more military funding. A war reporter for Russian daily Izvestia based in occupied Luhansk in eastern Ukraine tasked Mr Putin about Ukraine's recent foothold on the Russian-occupied east bank of the Dnipro river. He was fielding questions from journalists and ordinary Russians in his first marathon news conference since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. One-quarter of respondents say they already feel the effect of those sanctions, according to Volkov. People who are from disadvantaged groups are suffering the most, he adds, because they don't have the resources to adapt.


Where I am, people typically express their opinion at rallies, on social networks and among their inner circle. Usually, people will spread the word about protests secretly. But everyone who wants to participate can easily find out about it. For example, in certain online communities, they’ll just post a single number (indicating a date) and everyone understands everything.


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