Notes

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect you : NPR
Russian forces could move to secure a canal that Kyiv shut down in 2014. The closing of the canal has created a chronic water supply problem on the Russian-held peninsula. Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists. While the world's attention has focused on Russia's troop buildup on its land border with Ukraine, Moscow also has expanded its naval power near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval infantry, experts said. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus.


There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south. A British resident of Odesa told the BBC many people were leaving. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions. A full-on assault of Ukraine, with Russian forces attacking from the north, east and south, would aim to encircle the most potent arm of the Ukrainian military in the east, as well as make a move on the capital.

Joe Pike, political correspondent
The new NATO Strategic Concept, which was adopted in Madrid on 29 June, explicitly takes NATO in that direction (para. 21). Substantial and persistent military presence, backed by the prepositioning of equipment and strategic pre-assigning of combat forces is now part of the new NATO Force Model. The goal of massively increasing the availability of troops at high readiness is essential for effective deterrence. But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies. This year Russia has undertaken a major military buildup near Ukraine's border and in Crimea. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?

The UK will ban hi-tech exports to Russia and sanction people and companies in the defence and energy sectors. The US had promised the “mother of all sanctions”, probably targeting Russia’s banking and financial sectors, if Russia invaded Ukraine. They say NATO's principles of freedom and democracy are under threat and NATO has acted in non-member countries before, like Libya and Kosovo.
So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025, at the earliest. It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.

How Putin changed his war aims
But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps. Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished. While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago.


There have been an estimated 14,000 lives lost in the last eight years. While both Ukraine and western countries have accused Russia of sending weapons to assist, Moscow has denied intervention. They’ve said that the Russians who joined the fighting volunteered to do so on their own.

The problem with peace
In such a scenario, Russian public opinion could turn against Putin. "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. The United States and its allies can consider expanding the companies subject to the current sanctions or imposing more severe restrictions such as full blocking sanctions, which include an asset freeze and prohibit all transactions. More structurally, it has broken the entire security architecture built patiently on the continent over many decades, including international commitments agreed in the last 30 years.

Russia is a nuclear power and he has indicated he would be prepared, if necessary, to use nuclear weapons to protect Russia and cling on to occupied Ukrainian land. Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said his country was preparing for an "influx of refugees" from Ukraine. Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come. Public buildings and metro stations would be used as air raid shelters, while anti-aircraft guns might be hidden in parks. Russia has 100,000 troops lined up next to Ukraine, with tanks and artillery.
As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. There is no doubt Ukraine's armed forces will fight to the death if attacked but the superior firepower of Russia's military means they could be quickly overwhelmed. Blaming Nato's expansion eastwards is a Russian narrative that has gained some ground in Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato turn the clock back to 1997 and remove its forces and military infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion.

The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border. It's still possible Russia could pull back its troops, although Moscow's tough language suggests otherwise. He also served as ambassador to Poland during the Clinton administration. Ground troops in Belarus, backed by airstrikes, would spearhead a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.
Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service.


Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country. It would also try to "decapitate" the political leadership - something that Russia would most likely hope to achieve before it looked to de-escalate and put in place a more pro-Russian administration. They say NATO's principles of freedom and democracy are under threat and NATO has acted in non-member countries before, like Libya and Kosovo. He says he is doing it because the break up of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century for the Russian people. And he has written extensively about how Russians and Ukrainians are one people. The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing.

"The UK and our allies will respond decisively," he said in response. But that imagined a blitzkrieg-style ground campaign that could take big cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv. He says he is doing it because the break up of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century for the Russian people. The aim would be to create “shock and awe,” causing Ukraine's defenses or will to fight to collapse. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed.
At the same time, Russian officials continue to insist the troop buildup is just part of military exercises, even as their rhetoric grows more belligerent. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. Cyber attacks will likely play a part in any offensive such as by targeting critical infrastructure like power supplies.

At its Summit in Madrid in June 2022, NATO recognised this and offered an upgraded package of support. NATO and the European Union have, to a large extent, responded effectively in the first months of the war. US leadership has once again proven essential in successfully mobilising international efforts, especially in coordinating military support to Ukraine. NATO’s response to the war, balancing increasingly strong support to Ukraine with a justified reluctance to avoid open conflict with Russia, has been more or less vindicated.

Here's my website: