Notes

Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?
It's a rather dramatic rumble, where fast armoured vehicles tear down the road at 40mph, packed with troops, just to see if they can get into the centre of the city. And if the Ukrainians are prepared to fight the city street by street then the Russians won't be able to have the relatively bloodless takeover they are aiming for. At the centre of the massive offensive is Ukraine's capital Kyiv - home to three million people, with many fleeing the city. As Russia encircles Kyiv, a security expert explains how thunder runs, constitutional theatre and a 'Gestapo phase' are likely to play a critical part in the developing invasion of Ukraine – and all the while played out on social media.

There's also been heavy street-to-street fighting in areas including the second largest city of Kharkiv. Novatek said on Sunday it had been forced to suspend some operations at the huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal and "technological process" at the complex due to a fire, started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack. "They're targeting a change of decision-making, a change in policy in that direction, a change in public opinion." Sweden and Finland - though neither of them Nato members - joined the alliance's emergency summit last week, and the US has increased its troop numbers in countries like Poland.
Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out.

Zelenskyy accuses Russia of 'playing' with POW lives, says Kyiv will establish 'facts'
The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying". With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops. More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve.


All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces. Its military-industrial complex has also ramped up the production of hardware from drones to aircraft.

Is Ukraine ready for a Russian attack? It depends what kind
They would come in the wake of failed diplomacy and would start at “the top of the ladder,” according to the U.S. administration. In response, Russia will retaliate, quite possibly in the cyber-domain as well as in the energy sector. Moscow will limit access to critical goods such as titanium, of which Russia has been the world’s second-largest exporter. Russia will be ruthless in trying to get one or several European states to back away from economic conflict by linking a relaxation in tension to these countries’ self-interest, thus undermining consensus in the EU and NATO. If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia.


The closing of the canal has created a chronic water supply problem on the Russian-held peninsula. Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists. In the Black Sea, west of occupied Crimea, Russian warships could cut off the Ukrainian port cities of Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherso, which are crucial lifelines to global markets. Such a move is well within Russia's naval capabilities, and it could bring Ukraine's economy to its knees, the country's former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned in June. Enjoying an overwhelming military advantage over Ukraine's smaller, less advanced forces, Russia has a variety of options if Putin decides to launch an attack, depending on what Moscow wants to achieve, the price it is willing to pay and how the West responds, experts say. Western countries have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week.

Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor
Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers. As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.

Later that year, Russia deployed hybrid tactics, such as proxy militias and soldiers without insignia, to attack the Donbas region, where 14,000 people have died since 2014. On February 22, in the days before Putin launched a full-fledged war on Ukraine, he sent Russian troops into Donbas and declared two provinces there independent. Even in the early days of this war, Russia’s efforts are already having this effect.

"The sea is Ukraine's weakest spot," said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert in Kyiv. Russia accused Ukrainian forces of shooting down the plane with Western-provided missiles on Wednesday, saying the plane had been on its way to a prisoner exchange. They would come in the wake of failed diplomacy and would start at “the top of the ladder,” according to the U.S. administration. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.
Russia's next move over the next few days or weeks will be to declare the necessary combat operations are finished - even if they are not - and that a new constitutional arrangement is being made for the renegade state of Ukraine. They will head for parliament, to presidential powers and to all the governmental areas, and see who they can round up. They can then turn up with their puppets and install him or her into the presidential palace. The Russians need to get into the middle of the city, occupy the bridges and stop people moving backwards and forwards. The first obvious target is to occupy every airstrip around the city - the airfields and airports - partly for the use of their own aircrafts, but also to make sure the Ukrainians can't use them.

Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv's regional military administration (RMA) urged civilians to shelter this morning while air raid warnings continued. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said rescue operations are continuing in Ukraine after a barrage of Russian strikes on major cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv. The latest strikes come after a wave of strikes on Monday following a large-scale attack on the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk on Sunday. Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on a market that left 27 people dead and 26 injured. A lot of the stark warnings we are hearing from our own government should be seen in that light. Your parents are likely to pay even more for gas and electricity because of this crisis.


Seventy-eight national security scholars came out against a no-fly zone, saying that scenario would edge the US too close to a direct conflict with Russia. The fighting across Ukraine has forced about 9.8 million people to flee so far, according to the United Nations. Nearly 6.5 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine, although tens of thousands of Ukrainians were already forcibly displaced before Russia’s invasion because of the eight-year war in the Donbas region.

The Sea of Azov, inside the Kerch Strait, "has become Russia's internal sea", he declared, pointing out that even Russian Tsar Peter the Great did not manage that. Moscow's economy would "gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode" and its military would rebuild its coherence "drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare". For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war "in one day" if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. Big military formations - with forces of 30,000 troops and armour and all the rest of it - can only do what they've done on exercises and manoeuvres, so we know in advance how they're going to fight.
BBC Russian has identified more than 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in the first year of war and suggests the most conservative estimate would be at least double that, with more than 100,000 others wounded or missing. Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked war has been a disaster for itself and the country it was unleashed on. So far, it has achieved little more than exposing the brutality and inadequacy of the Russian military.

For months, Russia built up troops along the Ukrainian border, reaching around 190,000 on the eve of the invasion. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Its troops and military vehicles have secretly taken part in the fighting since 2014, but this deployment will probably be much larger. The number of people killed or injured in a missile strike on a market in Donetsk city on Sunday has risen, a Russian-installed official said Monday. But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies.
Novatek said on Sunday it had been forced to suspend some operations at the huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal and "technological process" at the complex due to a fire, started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack. Denis Pushilin, head of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, told the Rossiya-24 news channel that 27 people have now died in the strike, and 26 are injured, news agency RIA Novosti said, reporting his comments. In central Ukraine, two people were killed in the town of Pavlohrad, near the city of Dnipro, after a "massive missile attack by Russians on the city," Serhii Lysak, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk RMA, said on Telegram. The Polish army said it deployed aircraft to protect Polish airspace after Russia's latest missile attack on Ukraine. "The rescue operation continues after another Russian attack against our cities and people - deliberate terror against ordinary residential buildings in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlograd. Unfortunately, there are casualties and deaths," Zelenskyy said on Telegram. The Kremlin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov denied that the latest strikes were further retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian strike on a marketplace in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on Saturday in which 26 people died.

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