Notes

Ukraine conflict: Simple visual guide to the Russian invasion
And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. In his speech, Sanders said the cold war peace dividend was over, noting that “over the last 30 years, the army has been halved in size; in the last 12 years, we’ve absorbed a 28% reduction”. Recruitment remained a challenge, he said, although applications to join were “the highest in six years”. Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the prime minister did not agree with comments made by Gen Sir Patrick Sanders in a speech on Wednesday, and was forced to insist there would be no return to national service, which was abolished in 1960. The prime minister did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato.

The Foreign Office has warned against all travel to Crimea and two areas of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast. Russia has seized Ukrainian territory before, when it annexed Crimea in 2014, following fierce protests in Ukraine that toppled the country's pro-Russian president. Russian forces seized control of Crimea before the territory voted to join Russia in a referendum the West and Ukraine deemed illegal. Speaking as the Foreign Office pulled some embassy staff out of Ukraine, the PM said the situation was "pretty gloomy" but war was not inevitable. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added. Russia wants Nato to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member. Opposition leaders including Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer criticised the initial package of sanctions for being too soft. Our fiscal forecast captures the direct effect of lower equity prices on capital gains tax on the disposal of financial assets, though we do not assume any indirect wealth effect from lower equity prices on consumption and GDP.
But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. “Covid showed our ugly side, with people getting upset when all they were being asked to do was sit on the sofa at home,” said the former TA soldier. But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps.

UK will not look away from Russia invasion in Ukraine - PM
The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached. As expected, Vladimir Putin has been officially registered as a candidate for the Russian presidential election this March. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency.

Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances. The Foreign Office has warned against all travel to Crimea and two areas of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast. Meanwhile Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia - which borders Russia - has told BBC News "we're gonna help Ukraine with all the means that we can" including political support and by sending weapons.
It comes after President Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine's Donbas region in a televised address to the Russian people earlier and said the Ukrainian people would be able "to choose freely" who ran the country. While climate change is often deemed a "threat multiplier", it is clear from the last week "that fossil fuels are a threat multiplier too", she said. "We live in an unstable world. If rich counties fail to support vulnerable countries in tackling climate impacts and in their clean energy transition, it will only fuel a spiral of instability." It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders. The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so.

‘Your country needs you’
Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December. Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv. This culminated on 29 December, when Russian unleashed its largest aerial assault against Ukraine since the war began.

It came as Ukraine was hit by a wave of Russian missiles on Tuesday, in attacks that killed eight people and wounded dozens in Kyiv and Kharkiv. “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. Ukraine's government is encouraging people to take part in free training, as well as to manufacture drones at home to send to the front. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace branded Russia's actions "naked aggression against a democratic country" and said no one had been fooled by the Kremlin's "false flags and fake narratives".
A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe. The British public will be called up to fight if the UK goes to war because the military is too small, the head of the Army is to warn. I offer my condolences and that of the UK to all Ukrainians for the lives lost due to these barbaric airstrikes. These took place far away from the front lines of Russia’s war, in civilian populated areas. The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.

Putin orders attack
Ukrainian protesters gathered outside Downing Street on Thursday afternoon to call for more action from the UK and the international community. Watch Boris Johnson call the Ukraine invasion "wanton and reckless aggression" by Russia. Russia says some of its troops are being withdrawn from areas near the Ukraine border - but Nato says it can see no evidence of a withdrawal.

Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. A year ago, in an attempt to ensure politicians plugged the gap with future spending, he warned that gifts of weapons to Ukraine would “leave us temporarily weaker”. The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries.
Russia wants Nato to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member. It also wants Nato to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries. The memorandum is not a treaty and lawyers dispute whether it is legally enforceable. But it is a formal, public and written commitment by the UK to support Ukraine.


Many experts say it is too soon to tell how Russia's invasion will affect its participation in climate diplomacy and international action, such as at the next yearly United Nations climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November. With war raging in Ukraine, many fear ministers will be distracted from climate action. But because the UK operates in international gas markets, prices will be hit by any drop in global supply. After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine. Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. The agency says it is struggling to get humanitarian aid to many of the estimated 1.7 million people - nearly three-quarters of the population - displaced by 12 weeks of fighting.


The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery. Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January. The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying". Earlier this month The Telegraph revealed that the Navy has so few sailors it will have to decommission two warships to staff its new class of frigates.

Mr Johnson said Russian President Vladimir Putin has unleashed a "tidal wave of violence" against Ukraine. While the Channel has long been the country’s greatest defence, it makes it hard to import in times of war. He said the UK's "baffling" decision to hold back sanctions until after Russia's incursion into Ukraine had not deterred Mr Putin.
Speaking to the BBC, the organisation's former chief spokesperson, Christopher Gunness, said that the suspension of aid to UNRWA was disproportionate and can only lead to further suffering in Gaza. It provides health care, education and other humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Several countries including the UK have paused funding for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. Ukraine's commander-in-chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyy told the Economist magazine in November that Russia and Ukraine had "reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate".

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