Notes

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority. "I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser. The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.

To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. The main reason for the assessment that it suits Putin to hang in there is that over time western support for Ukraine will drift away. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister,
said the Russians had an “activity plan until 2025,” and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if arms supplies from Western countries were to end. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty?
And Russia, as a much larger country, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a significant economic player, “is no North Korea” and “can’t and will not be isolated,” she noted. The forecasting firm Good Judgment’s superforecasters, a global network of about 180 experts in various fields with a strong track record, tend to “see a long slog coming” in Ukraine, CEO Warren Hatch told me. Some of the superforecasters, however, point to key differences between this war and past conflicts that they believe could produce a faster resolution—including the degree to which the West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia economically. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.

Zelensky: Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war
The Biden administration continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated. “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby. For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow. Many experts I consulted were pessimistic about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war in the foreseeable future.

And don’t anticipate a dramatic finish, such as a Russian nuclear detonation in Ukraine or the overthrow of Vladimir Putin in Russia. The report, cites two people with close links to the Kremlin and says that senior US officials were made aware of the signals in December via an unnamed intermediary. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank.
Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes. Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024. Putin knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe. At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics.

Leadership change
One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year. Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. https://bagge-albrechtsen.mdwrite.net/ukraine-crisis-whats-at-stake-for-the-uk was probably the period of maximum unease on the Russian side.

Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." One year ago, Russia launched a war that many never expected it to wage and assumed it would quickly win against a cowed Ukraine and its allies. Persuading countries in regions such as Africa and the Middle East to deny Russia its imperial schemes will require a major shift in how the United States and its allies describe the stakes of the war and even in how they articulate their broader worldview, Hill argued. Then both sides would have to show they cared about peace, even while reserving their positions. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June.
As for Ukraine's offensive, Mr Podolyak said the Wagner mutiny did not last long enough to influence the fighting along a front of 1,800 kilometres, the longest - he said - in any war since 1945. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. The most recent reports suggests that a deal is getting closer in the Senate but it will not be finalised until later in January, assuming that there are not further delays.

When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.
Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. "It's to send in non-uniformed troops to stir up trouble, part of 'sub-threshold warfare'. I'm worried it will spill over into the Baltics." "This is a massive wake-up call for Europe," says Tobias Ellwood, MP and chairman of the UK Parliament's Defence Committee.


“All attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure must stop immediately. They are prohibited under international humanitarian law and are simply unacceptable,” Mr. Jenča stressed. The UN human rights office (OHCHR) has verified 10,065 civilians killed and a further 18,679 injured since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Over 10 million have been forced to flee their homes, including over 6.3 million who have sought refuge outside Ukraine. If urgent steps are not taken to end the ongoing war and its dire humanitarian consequences in Ukraine, 2024 may be even more unpredictable and destructive, a senior UN official warned on Wednesday.


Some Ukrainian experts fear a pincer movement to encircle Donbas and the east from Sumy in the north and Velyka Novosilka in the south, allowing Russia to occupy most of the four Ukrainian provinces it has unilaterally claimed to have annexed. At this point, Russia could call for a ceasefire to retain what it has, and run a defensive campaign to consolidate its battered military. Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.


Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy. We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat. Things will move slower over the winter but there's no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.

More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve. One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. But many experts I turned to were not seriously concerned about such an outcome. Briefing ambassadors at the Security Council, Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, said that like the previous year, the year 2023 has been devastating for the people of Ukraine.
Here's my website: https://bagge-albrechtsen.mdwrite.net/ukraine-crisis-whats-at-stake-for-the-uk