Notes

What history shows: How will the war in Ukraine end? Russia-Ukraine war
Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. There is a difference between keeping options open, perhaps seeing what response tentative, private probes might get, and going public with a concrete proposal. Most likely a new diplomatic effort would start with a third party initiative. Anything that generated any momentum would certainly change the context. Then both sides would have to show they cared about peace, even while reserving their positions. Military moves would start to be judged by how they affected prospective talks.


In a matter of days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated to one of the biggest military conflicts in Europe since the second world war. The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last. While no one can provide definitive answers, academic research on war gives us some insights into how the conflict in Ukraine might unfold. As https://k12.instructure.com/eportfolios/509128/Home/Germanys_new_farleft_party_calls_for_an_end_to_the_Ukraine_war continued, and videos spread of tanks rolling into Ukrainian territory, many on social media asked what Russia's president was thinking.

How and When the War in Ukraine Will End
While the bipartisan majority of lawmakers support arming Kyiv, 57 Republicans voted against a $40 billion emergency aid supplemental in May. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. Smith indicated he disagrees with the Biden administration’s decision not to send long-range missiles, noting every Ukrainian official assured him they would not use them to attack Russia. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict. American leadership has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult.

It has delivered artillery, but not the longer-range rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for. When this happens, countries often end up fighting wars of attrition that last until one side gives up. But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. One key question that could determine the war’s end game is how long Ukraine’s backers can keep up their arms donations to Kyiv. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never,” President Joe Biden said in a speech in Poland this year, and rightly so.
Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons.

How will the war in Ukraine end?
The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck.

But a couple offered scenarios for what such a settlement could look like, portraying them as more guesswork than predictions. Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? If Putin now feels more confident it is because he weathered that particular storm. But it leaves a lingering “what if” question about the effect on the Russian system had there been more Ukrainian success or for that matter if the next mutineer has a clearer idea of what he is trying to achieve.
That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The war has already become very costly for the oligarchs and these costs will only increase with time. When a sufficient number of Putin’s coalition privately turn against the war, this will pressure Putin to end the war or risk his position of power. However, where this line is and if there are any viable alternatives that would better serve the interests of this coalition is questionable.

Ukraine will press Russia around Crimea
And Russia has a seemingly endless supply of young men whose lives it is willing to waste in this war. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year. But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond.

The election is so obviously rigged that it is hard for outsider observers to take it seriously as a landmark date. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. To keep up the military effort, Putin may need further mobilisation (something he said at his press conference not to be necessary). So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control.
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