Notes

How will Russia's war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes
The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. "A successful attack on such a terminal not only causes economic damage to the enemy, depriving the occupiers of the opportunity to earn money to wage war in Ukraine, but also significantly complicates the logistics of fuel for the Russian military." Moscow accused Kyiv of launching a missile strike on the market in Donetsk, killing at least 25 people and injuring 20 others, and described the incident as a terrorist attack.


“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.

Peace mediation experts should be involved
Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way. Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased. Close relationships with one or both conflict parties may actually help. Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance. Trying to end wars is, obviously, very complex and requires certain expertise. There have even been initiatives to adopt a new international treaty to create a stronger framework and more guidance for peace negotiators.

While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". "The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future," Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. However, the man dubbed "Putin's chef" has also been a vocal opponent of the Kremlin's inner circle in recent months in a sign that power may be shifting among Russia's political class. https://penzu.com/p/c6b6e9235f53303d could engage in a "step-by-step approach to a temporary peace", unfolding in a similar way to previous conflicts, including Cyprus after 1974 and Korea after 1954, Professor Clarke added. "From a Ukrainian perspective … after the losses that they have endured, particularly over the last year, the question will be … 'Why would they want to seek to negotiate over what is their recognised territory?'" Ms German said.


But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea. The war in Ukraine assumed international dimensions the moment Russian armoured columns rolled across the border in February 2022. A conflict where a major nuclear power and energy exporter violated the sovereignty of a country that is a keystone of global food security was never going to be contained to just two countries.

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According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the newly appointed Russian General Sergey Surovikin plans to build a solid line of defense in occupied territories and effectively freeze the war over the winter. However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill. Though the chances of him being overthrown in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously said the Russian leader has made his regime "coup-proof" through a culture of distrust among Russia's intelligence agencies. But despite Russia's strongman facing discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the partial mobilization of reservists, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down.


But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year.

When will it be over? And 9 more questions about Russia, Ukraine and a year of war
Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.

Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. While Americans back providing aid for Ukraine, a recent Pew Research Poll found nearly a quarter believe the country is providing too much support to Ukraine. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine. Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance.
The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?

It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose. If the Chinese Communist Party decides to go forward with long-deferred market reforms to restore economic dynamism, the Biden administration will have an opening to develop a framework for managing competition with China and achieving a stable competitive coexistence. The Russian side hasn't escalated as much as it can, analysts say, and another offensive aligns with Mr Putin's strategy to double down when backed into a corner.
Convoys have also entered the eastern Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and moved into the Kherson region from Crimea - a territory that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time". There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions.

There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko. However, Kotkin has criticized this idea of transforming Ukraine “into a fortress state” because “it doesn’t help achieve lasting peace.” He also adds that this model wouldn’t match the requirements for EU membership. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has "once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history." During his visit to the US in December, Zelensky was able to obtain an additional US$1.85 billion (£1.5 billion) security assistance package.
Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages. Congress provided more than $100 billion in aid to Kyiv since Russia invaded last year, including $61.4 billion in military aid.

In his speech, Bush raised the possibility that the war could divide the country and never formally end – just like with what happened in the Korean Peninsula. Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.
Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

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