Notes

How the War in Ukraine Might End
American leadership has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. An inability to do so could foster economic discontent capable of turning public opinion against the war, Lichfield told Defense News. Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II.


If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. However, laying the groundwork for a serious effort to negotiate real peace offers at least some chance of changing Russian and Ukrainian positions over time. In practical terms, neither outcome would produce a stable peace or form of conflict resolution.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine's nearly million-strong army encounters Russian casualties in Avdiivka
It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. https://houmann-monroe-2.federatedjournals.com/if-russia-invaded-ukraine means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia.

Anything that approaches a rules-based order is limited to some developed countries. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. The same longer-term planning and continuing flow of aid are needed to support civil aid for both war fighting and recovery. Another senior official, who spoke on condition he was not named, went further, suggesting that President Putin would be forced to dismiss his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, perhaps as a response to another military setback. And leaving Russia with no apparent options but Putin’s determination to fight is not the way to pressure Russia to move in the right direction or to mobilize as much support from the rest of the world as possible.
And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.

Russia's economy is still working but sanctions are starting to have an effect
Both sides seem resigned to a long conflict, with the high numbers of casualties, equipment losses and economic damage since it started on February 24, 2022 set to escalate. The current war is different, with Western support helping Ukraine regain large parts of the territory Russia grabbed in the early weeks after last year’s invasion. Emory University’s Reiter listed two main reasons for the lack of appetite in Ukraine for any negotiations that would mean accepting the loss of territory. “The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said. He said there is little the West can do to stop Ukrainians from trying to take back all of their country’s territory currently held by Russia — including parts that Moscow has formally, though illegally, annexed. It has a homegrown war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes there is a good chance Russia can sustain the conflict for years to come.

And then, in the weeks after Goemans and I first spoke, events accelerated rapidly. The US has sent billions in crucial weaponry to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks. Both sides still believed that they could win, and their distrust for each other was deepening by the day. Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too. Russia has also shown more skill in dealing with sanctions and economic warfare than the U.S. and other planners estimated when they imposed them.
Past attempts to squeeze the will for war out of Moscow economically also didn’t yield the immediate results for which experts hoped. Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all. “This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America. But Biden and other Western leaders should tell them that this is an option they will have if their counteroffensive is still grinding on next year.


For now, Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains he will continue to fight to the bitter end. Russia could make a push for more land or the flow of weapons to Kyiv could be halted, bringing forward a stalemate. Ask any analyst or observer how they think the war in Ukraine will play out, and they'll tell you their guess is only as good as the next offensive.


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