Notes

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end? Ukraine
As the world’s biggest marketplace, Europe has long punched below its weight. This section examines the enduring changes in the world that are evident so far and how our scenarios could further impact the movement of these repositioned chess pieces. "We are in for a very long fight, this is not going to be short, this is not only going to be about Ukraine. ... https://telegra.ph/Opinion-Here-Are-3-Ways-to-End-the-War-in-Ukraine-One-Might-Actually-Work-01-31 is probably the biggest challenge that we are seeing in Europe since World War II," he said.

Ukraine claims it has killed more than 50,000 Russian troops, and at the end of August said it had lost nearly 9,000 military personnel since the start of the conflict. Under the Minsk agreements, elections must be held according to Ukrainian law and that is possible only if they control the border, he insists. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands." The slower global economic growth that our scenarios predict, along with the retrenchment and fragmentation of globalization, would be unwelcome developments for most of the world’s nations. Mr Zelenskyy has so far ruled this out as a possibility, proposing a 10-point "formula for peace," which includes demands for a full withdrawal from Ukraine's territory.
The rapidity and the fury with which the United States, Europe, and major Asian economies (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia) slapped severe sanctions on Russia almost certainly came as a shock to China’s leaders. The swift Western response will give ammunition to Chinese proponents of more fully decoupling the country’s financial system from the West. Beijing’s goals as part of its Made in China 2025 initiative to become self-sufficient in key high-tech areas, and China Standards 2035, an effort to shape trade and technology standards and rules, seem even more urgent. What follows are four scenarios for how this war could conclude and the alternative geopolitical futures that might result, transforming international relations over the course of the next two to three years. We develop scenarios not to predict the future but to help decision makers imagine what could happen next and devise ways to prevent the worst case. The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.

When will it be over? And 9 more questions about Russia, Ukraine and a year of war
The words of Danilov and Arestovich were spoken before the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June. This is the same percentage as in November of 2022, since the last victorious Ukrainian counteroffensive, when half of the province of Kherson was liberated. Ukraine claims it has killed more than 50,000 Russian troops, and at the end of August said it had lost nearly 9,000 military personnel since the start of the conflict. The Donbas is a mainly Russian-speaking area, and after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, pro-Russian forces captured more than a third of the region. The areas are largely in the eastern Donbas region and in the south of mainland Ukraine, as well as the Crimea peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014.

Perhaps the most remarkable change stemming from the war in Ukraine is the awakening of Europe from its post-Cold War slumber. The leaders of Poland and Ukraine pledged on Monday to tackle a thorny political dispute that had hampered their critical wartime alliance and boost defence cooperation as Russia's invasion grinds towards its third year. A ceasefire would give the Ukrainians a reprieve without backing Mr Putin into a corner, preventing a possible escalation in which he resorts to extreme measures such as attacks on Western energy infrastructure or the use of nuclear weapons.
It has also said it will continue to target these areas with military strikes. There is also a Ukrainian counter-attack around the Kherson region in the south of the country. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says.

Ukraine conflict: Your guide to understanding the story
A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. "This is a factual paper which does not reflect the status of the ongoing negotiations. The note does not outline any specific plan relating to the [long-term EU budget] and Ukraine Facility, nor does it outline any plan relating to Hungary," it said. The Russian-installed mayor of Donetsk has reported at least three civilians have been killed in a rocket strike. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.


"The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. But to analysts, like Morris, the prospect of Putin being removed is extremely unlikely — and the chances that whoever replaces him will be less hawkish are even more remote. “There isn’t really any source of alternative power to coalesce around while Putin is healthy and alive,” said Morris. The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent.

Western exhaustion
And the United States should do everything possible to support it, including, if Congress approves more funding, by providing the more advanced weapons Ukraine has requested. The slower global economic growth that our scenarios predict, along with the retrenchment and fragmentation of globalization, would be unwelcome developments for most of the world’s nations. Their future will likely involve more civil conflict and impoverishment. Although they will be reluctant to align with either the United States and its allies or China and Russia, many developing countries will probably be susceptible to Chinese influence, given China’s massive investments in regions such as Africa and Latin America. With much of the developing world on the front lines of climate change, a breakdown in global cooperation could bring less help on that score too.


Similar attacks continued for several days and show no sign of abating in the new year. This prompted the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to warn that Russia was probably planning a prolonged air campaign aimed at exhausting Ukraine. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high.


This, in turn, would likely weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort. If there was no clear successor, Mr Putin's departure could spur on a brutal power struggle among pro-war, right-wing nationalists, authoritarian conservatives and a murky anti-war movement. Mr Putin's exit would not end the war in Ukraine because the Russian leader would likely be replaced by another pro-war nationalist, Professor Clarke said. However, if the war were to drag on this year and into next year, the reasoning could change. Mr Zelenskyy has so far ruled this out as a possibility, proposing a 10-point "formula for peace," which includes demands for a full withdrawal from Ukraine's territory.

Its most recent death count was in March, when it said 1,351 Russian soldiers had died since the invasion began. This prompted the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to warn that Russia was probably planning a prolonged air campaign aimed at exhausting Ukraine. Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine.
Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year. With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.


Here's my website: https://telegra.ph/Opinion-Here-Are-3-Ways-to-End-the-War-in-Ukraine-One-Might-Actually-Work-01-31