Notes

When will the Russia-Ukraine war end? Experts offer their predictions
It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong. But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has focussed the West's military minds. UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Putin’s disastrous military campaign has diplomatically diminished Russia as it turns to North Korea and Iran.


These are the sort of outcomes that could follow on from a decisive Russian military victory. Without such a victory, the Kremlin might revert to more modest goals – but even in this case Ukraine is fully aware of the danger. Could its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, accept a permanent Russian presence in Donbas? Not explicitly, and certainly not in the form of a codified peace deal. He has spoken about a negotiated settlement on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk, but that is an old concession that goes back to the origins of the current crisis in 2014. Another road to victory is to simply run down the clock, with Russia working under the assumption that, even if the west keeps supplying Ukraine with arms, Kyiv’s army might run out of military personnel.

Ukraine will press Russia around Crimea
But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war. The reason why this is called “imperial overreach” is because a common thing that happens with a lot of empire endeavors is you overextend yourself and create an ungovernable entity. That is the risk that this scenario poses, let alone the challenge of having enough military success to do the conquering.


There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. While the bipartisan majority of lawmakers support arming Kyiv, 57 Republicans voted against a $40 billion emergency aid supplemental in May. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

EU to review UNRWA funding, calls for staff probe after allegations
The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. Still, it’s an open question whether the U.S. will be able to indefinitely continue its current level of support, said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser who has studied the volumes of artillery used in the war. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft. “The ultimate end to this is the Ukrainians take back as much pre-Feb. 24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview.


Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. "But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme." This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says.


“Even technologically advanced, wealthy states in the Middle East eventually reached a point where they’re lobbing missiles at civilian cities, openly using chemical weapons and fighting in waves — just people rushing across the field getting shot at,” Jensen said. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? https://telegra.ph/Ukraine-How-might-the-war-end-Five-scenarios-01-31 could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato.

I’m very much on record for saying that I thought Putin would invade. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. Conversely, that roughly tracks with the results of an Ipsos poll from January, which found about 7 in 10 people in Western countries think they should "avoid getting involved militarily" in Ukraine, while also "supporting sovereign countries when they are attacked by other countries." But he said even that is not enough - so the Army should be designed to expand rapidly "to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon, and train and equip the citizen army that must follow". "We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back."
Website: https://telegra.ph/Ukraine-How-might-the-war-end-Five-scenarios-01-31