Notes

When will the war in Ukraine end? And 9 more questions about Russia's invasion : NPR
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already led to a crisis—not only for Ukraine but also for the Kremlin. As Russian troops have advanced toward Kyiv, the European Union and the United States have responded with dramatic financial punishments that could deep-freeze the Russian economy and send inflation on an upward spiral. We’re still looking at a range of possibilities, including de-escalation and a great-power conflict. While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too. As in the years after the initial invasion of Ukraine, a prolonged stalemate could just give space and capacity for Russia to re-strategise and reinvest in its military – which could ultimately lead to an even lengthier war. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said.


The morale of the Ukrainians remained high and their military tactics adept. By the end of March, Russia had lost tanks and aircraft worth an estimated $5 billion, not to speak of up to a quarter of the troops it had sent into battle. Its military supply system proved shockingly inept, whether for repairing equipment or delivering food, water, and medical supplies to the front.

Turkey arrests 47 alleged IS members over Istanbul church attack
But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. The danger lay in a humiliating peace treaty imposed on defeated Germany. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.


The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. However, it is hard to imagine Russia striking very far west, given the painfully slow advance around Bakhmut and the catastrophic attempt to capture Vuhledar. Currently, https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/russia-invades-ukraine-how-will-the-uk-help-in-fight-against-vladimir-putin is taking 1,000 casualties a day.

Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons. At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America.

Putin ousted
Either the Russian military’s transition to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets succeeds in eroding Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic woes succeed in defeating Russia’s will to fight. Neither outcome is likely in the coming weeks and months, meaning people around the world are left to watch the horrors of war unfold, and wait. Russia would retain its land corridor to Crimea, even if with some concessions to Ukraine. It would receive a guarantee that the water canals flowing southward to that peninsula from the city of Kherson, which would revert to Ukrainian control, would never again be blocked. Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.

He said there is little the West can do to stop Ukrainians from trying to take back all of their country’s territory currently held by Russia — including parts that Moscow has formally, though illegally, annexed. Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated.
Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland.


The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies. Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers.

Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. It's threatening economic sanctions against Russia if it invades. That is the risk that this scenario poses, let alone the challenge of having enough military success to do the conquering. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.
Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when.


The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power.


While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.


“I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.

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