Notes

Will Russia attack the UK? What Putin has said and why there are fears that he will expand the Ukraine war
Ms Truss today told Mr Lavrov that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia would have “massive consequences and carry severe costs”. Meanwhile, Russia and its ally Belarus have started 10 days of joint military drill. While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank.

Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US. Many analysts fear war in Ukraine could potentially spill over into other European countries. Russian forces targeted parts of the Kharkiv oblast throughout yesterday and this morning, injuring several and damaging buildings, said Oleg Synegubov, head of the Kharkiv regional state administration. The defence expert, who held meetings in Moscow with Russian officials last week, said one of the extra options the UK could provide are intelligence surveillance reports.
The US had promised the “mother of all sanctions”, probably targeting Russia’s banking and financial sectors, if Russia invaded Ukraine. But that imagined a blitzkrieg-style ground campaign that could take big cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv. The recognition of the territories and occupation by Russian forces is also an act of aggression but it is not the nightmare scenario. Mr Wallace also said work was under way to try to get the Swift international payment system "turned off for Russia".

Ukraine revealed at the end of 2022 that 10-13,000 of its soldiers had been killed since the start of the war. That figure cannot be confirmed, but it followed a US estimate of some 100,000 Ukrainians killed or wounded by November. Before Western artillery arrived in the east last summer, Kyiv officials said 100 to 200 troops were dying every day. Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December. Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv.

Simple guide to Ukraine crisis in maps
Russia attacked the central Poltava region with two ballistic missiles, and three surface-to-air missiles over the Donetsk region in the east. Russia and Ukraine have increased their air attacks on each other’s territory in recent months, targeting critical military, energy and transport infrastructure. The investigation dates back to August 2022, when officials signed a contract for artillery shells worth 1.5bn hryvnias ($39.6m) with the arms firm Lviv Arsenal, the security service said. Company employees were supposed to transfer the funds to a business registered abroad, which would then deliver the ammunition to Ukraine. But the goods were never delivered and the money was instead sent to various accounts in Ukraine and the Balkans, investigators said.


BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Those standing against Mr Putin in the upcoming election, including anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin, have until Wednesday to gather the required number of supporters' signatures to back their campaigns. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added.

Why is Russia invading Ukraine?
The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". He said there will likely be an initial phase where Russian and Ukrainian troops are fighting on the ground in Donbas and potentially around Kyiv but Russia will take control of the air very quickly. Prof Chalmers said he did not think the UK would send over large equipment as Russia's superior force would destroy it quickly and Ukrainian forces would need training on how to use and maintain it. Both the US and the UK are also helping Ukraine manage Russian cyber attacks, which could lead to many Ukrainian deaths if key infrastructure is taken over by Moscow.

Yet the Army is already looking at how it might create a citizens' army. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. The memorandum is not a treaty and lawyers dispute whether it is legally enforceable.
President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. "The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two," said Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian troops made two attempts to storm the presidential compound, according to his adviser. Madame Chair, last but not least I also wanted to highlight today the UK’s continued concern for our three OSCE colleagues of the Special Monitoring Mission detained by Russia.

Explosions heard across the country
As diplomats met in Brussels on Tuesday, it remained unclear whether Putin’s order to send troops into Ukraine would be the trigger for the massive sanctions the EU has been threatening for weeks. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-would-happen-if-russia-nuked-ukraine.html have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week. And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, UN estimates suggested more than 100,000 people have already fled their homes in Ukraine. Putin watchers believe he will seek to extend control of the four regions that he has declared to be part of Russia, not just in Donbas, but towards the key city of Zaporizhzhia. A nuclear strike on any UK city would kill everyone within a 1.2-mile radius instantly. The decision by Vladimir Putin to launch military operations in Ukraine will intensify pressure on the PM to go further in taking action than he has so far with sanctions. It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv.
Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK. Russia wants Nato to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member. It also wants Nato to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries. It is called self-determination, and perhaps the most important aspect of this principle is that borders cannot be changed by invading armies.

Then Ukrainian forces said Russian military vehicles had crossed the border near Kharkiv in the north, Luhansk in the east, Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and from Belarus too. Belarus's authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said his country's military were not involved but could be if needed. It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders. Now Russia have confirmed plans to invade Ukraine, although Vladimir Putin has said he has no plans to "occupy" the country, various states have confirmed that Russia will face harsh sanctions.


Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyansky has been no less assertive, calling the meeting a “clear PR stunt shameful for the reputation of UN security council”. On Sunday, a US Senate foreign relations committee said it was on the verge of approving “the mother of all sanctions”. The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the individuals “play a role in government decision-making or are at a minimum complicit in the Kremlin’s destabilising behaviour”.


China is looking for a role in securing a political settlement, but its position is probably too close to Russia to be considered an honest broker. The UN human rights commissioner says at least 8,006 civilians have died and 13,287 have been wounded in 12 months of war, but the true number is likely to be substantially higher. Russia's warnings to the West against arming Ukraine have gone unheeded, with Western assurances of support "for as long as it takes" and pledges that Nato will never be divided. A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare.


"Russia's widespread aggression is a threat to the entire world and to all Nato countries," she said. Several neighbouring countries have begun preparations to take in a large number of refugees. Moldova alone said more than 4,000 people had come over the border from Ukraine. While Russia’s forces are strong they would be dwarfed by Nato’s collective power, making touching a Nato member incredibly risky. Mr Putin has frequently warned other countries against intervening in Ukraine.

Here's my website: https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-would-happen-if-russia-nuked-ukraine.html