Notes

What war could mean for life in modern Britain
And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. Putin and his inner circle are very much products of the Cold War and consider the breakup of the Soviet Union and its Communist Party dictatorship a humiliation. In that sense, the current conflict is a renewal or even a continuation of the Cold War because its goal is to restore Russia as America’s greatest military rival. That failed to happen, so the current invasion is an attempt to achieve a similar end using force on a massive scale.

"The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. Gershkovich was detained while on a reporting trip to the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, about 2,000km (1,200 miles) east of Moscow. Russian-backed rebels control areas of eastern Ukraine near Russia's borders in a conflict which has cost an estimated 14,000 lives. The situation has resulted in contacts being terminated for political reasons as a result of changing attitudes towards Russia as a whole. Western intelligence officials concluded that the incident fitted into a pattern of Russia widening its military activities to involve attacks on infrastructure underpinning Western economic and energy security.
Even with prices falling faster than expected, next winter still looks challenging – and energy is likely to remain front and centre of the political agenda well beyond that. The prime minister did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato. The Russian president said his goal was the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, warning that if the West were to interfere they would endure “consequences they had never seen”. He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Putin already sent in “peacekeeping troops” to two separatist regions of Ukraine on Monday – prompting the West to issue a string of sanctions against Russia – but went even further early Thursday morning when he declared war on Ukraine.

News
Western intelligence officials concluded that the incident fitted into a pattern of Russia widening its military activities to involve attacks on infrastructure underpinning Western economic and energy security. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war. In his first major speech on defence, Grant Shapps said the country was moving from a "post war to a pre-war world".


Downing Street said the leaders agreed that if a further Russian incursion took place, "allies must enact swift retributive responses including an unprecedented package of sanctions". But while by far the most significant consequences of the invasion over the past year have clearly been for the people of the Ukraine (and Russia), the advent of war in mainland Europe has also had consequences for UK government. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl.

Biden to host German chancellor to discuss Ukraine aid
Western materiel and equipment are being depleted at a rapid rate on the battlefields of Ukraine, leading to concerns that neither government nor industry have moved to the war-footing required for resupply. Serious discussion of defence spending, procurement and supply will be a new reality for the government for years to come. As prime minister Boris Johnson promised to increase defence spending from an existing 2% to 2.5% of GDP; his successor Liz Truss went further by committing to 3%. The question remains as to why the Foreign Office had a comparatively low number of staff focused on the region prior to Russia’s invasion – and the extent to which that hindered the UK’s response. The new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is tasked with plotting the UK’s course out of the crisis.

An additional battlegroup of 850 troops has also begun deploying to Estonia over the past week, and 350 Royal Marines have been sent to Poland to reinforce the light cavalry squadron already stationed there. If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. The country is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, meaning conflict is likely to cause supply problems, especially in Europe. Ukraine has said its goal for the talks is an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces from the country. Speaking as the Foreign Office pulled some embassy staff out of Ukraine, the PM said the situation was "pretty gloomy" but war was not inevitable.
A source familiar with the situation said the drone fell at about 7am local time but had not affected fuel output. The attack on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery caused no fire or casualties, governor Mikhail Yevrayev said. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has been serving prison time since 2021 after leading street protests and starting a nationwide opposition movement, was recently moved to a penal colony in Russia's far north. As expected, Vladimir Putin has been officially registered as a candidate for the Russian presidential election this March.

European security
Russia's ambitions, he said, were not just about seizing territory but "about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically and symbolically". But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. Even during https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-troops-does-ukraine-have.html in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. Military kit also needs boots on the ground to operate it – hence Sir Patrick’s call for a “Citizen Army” to boost the regular Armed Forces.


Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO.

We assume that wages do not rise to compensate for this bout of higher inflation which is driven by external forces. Ukraine has invited Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, to participate in peace talks, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top adviser has said. Mr Johnson promised to hit Russia with a “massive” package of sanctions designed to “hobble” the economy in Moscow. Nato has said it will listen to Russia’s concerns about wanting Ukraine not to join the organisation but its core values, of allowing each nation to choose its own path and defending all allies, will not be compromised.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, signed it off on Thursday, leaving Hungary as the only country in the 31-member alliance that has yet to ratify the Swedish bid. Russia state media said the black boxes from the plane had been delivered to a special defence ministry laboratory in Moscow and investigators were already working on them. Failure to strike a deal would have global implications, with the Pentagon warning that Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines of its grinding war with Russia risk running out of ammunition. The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, has said the “future of the war in Ukraine” and the “security of our western democracy” depend on Congress reaching an agreement.


A Conservative MP has warned that Vladimir Putin may be planning ways to attack the UK and Nato allies, following reports that a fleet of spy ships is mapping wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.


Ambassador Neil Holland condemns Russia's air attacks this week on Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as the spate of attacks on Ukraine over the past month. The sea-based missiles have a reported range of 900km and travel several times the speed of sound which would make it hard to defend against them. After eight years in government – as highlighted by his campaign posters, which are emblazoned with the number in a big yellow font – Stubb said his return had been spurred by Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Debates between the nine candidates hoping to take over from Finland’s two-term president Sauli Niinistö in March had been “very constructive”, said Stubb, of the centre-right National Coalition party. Funding for Kyiv has been tied to policies to address the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

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