Notes

Why is Russia invading Ukraine and will there be a war? %%
Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced. Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural treasures, private homes and industrial centres are either destroyed or pillaged, with stolen goods being sent to Russia in an organised manner.


Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says. Despite such heavy losses, analysts predict that the war could go on for years. “Both sides are now gearing [up] for a long war—recruiting, training, finding replacements—and moving from what you might call the sprint phase to a marathon phase,” Cancian says.

Russia-Ukraine War
The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Russia has gathered up to 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is positioned to launch an attack that could threaten the capital, Kyiv, and sweep across much of the country. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-did-ukraine-look-like-before-the-war.html of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war.


What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. Forced into further retreats from Kharkiv in the north-east and Kherson in the south, that aim remains unchanged, but it has shown little success in achieving it. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. He vowed to protect people from eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda claim with no foundation in reality. He spoke of preventing Nato from gaining a foothold in Ukraine, then added another objective of ensuring Ukraine's neutral status.

Will Russia's Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine?
He has urged the United Nations to "do everything possible" to stop the aggression going any further. Ukraine has had several disadvantages from the start, including being unable to match the heavy weaponry of Russian forces. Although foreign governments are increasingly sending Ukraine more advanced weapons, it takes time to train Ukrainian troops who have relied on Soviet-era calibers, Cancian says. Earlier this month, the U.S. committed to sending additional mid-range rocket-launching systems known as HIMARS. Recent reports suggest HIMARS may be turning the war back in Ukraine’s favor.

All this could help it degrade a blitz, although supply or absorptive constraints might be hindrances. President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members. Russia's long-time leader was also desperate to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato's orbit, but his attempt to blame the Western defensive alliance for the war is false. The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run. With both Ukraine and Russia investing heavily in the war, it's unlikely there will be any negotiations to end the conflict or agree to a cease-fire. Sweden and Finland - though neither of them Nato members - joined the alliance's emergency summit last week, and the US has increased its troop numbers in countries like Poland.
Not the full-scale war that has bombed civilians across Ukraine and left more than 13 million either as refugees abroad or displaced inside their own country. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has called on the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and for Western allied countries to stop rotating their troops through several nations in Eastern Europe. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions.

Putin orders attack
And nearly five months in, there’s no end in sight to the brutal conflict. Prior to the talks, Ukraine officials shared that Russia had dropped preconditions to any peace deal. However, Ukraine's foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba added that the Russian president's announcement that nuclear weapons were now on high alert was a move to put pressure on the country during negotiations.


Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.

Its military-industrial complex has also ramped up the production of hardware from drones to aircraft. As current levels are eminently insufficient, procurement practices and defence industry production capacity must be adapted, and stocks augmented quickly. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. While both Ukraine and western countries have accused Russia of sending weapons to assist, Moscow has denied intervention. Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus.
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