Notes

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe
Russia denies it is preparing for an invasion and accuses Nato of upping its activity in the region. Streams of cars have been seen leaving major cities and are queuing to cross borders into neighbouring countries. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. In that response, the US and NATO rejected any deal on NATO membership, but leaked documents suggest the potential for new arms control agreements and increased transparency in terms of where NATO weapons and troops are stationed in Eastern Europe. Those divisions — which Washington is trying very hard to keep contained — may embolden Putin.


Talk of wider war in Europe and the potential need for mass mobilisation or a "citizen army" may sound alarming. But the head of the British Army Gen Sir Patrick Sanders is not alone in issuing a national call to prepare for a major conflict on European soil. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe.

UK gives evidence of Russian-North Korean arms deal violations to UN
Russia accused Kyiv of downing a large military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war to an exchange on Wednesday, after a crash in the Belgorod region that killed all 74 people onboard. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.

However, don’t expect to see Jeremy Corbyn being carted off straight away. It didn't, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. "Calling it a 'special military operation' has its disadvantages for the Kremlin. Gen Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Joint Forces Command, told the committee that he doubted there were “sufficient munitions to sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than about a week”.
When the Soviet Union broke up in the early ’90s, Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, had the third largest atomic arsenal in the world. The United States and Russia worked with Ukraine to denuclearize the country, and in a series of diplomatic agreements, Kyiv gave its hundreds of nuclear warheads back to Russia in exchange for security assurances that protected it from a potential Russian attack. Even if cyberattacks didn’t wipe out Netflix, wartime Britons would still face a life without luxuries. While the Channel has long been the country’s greatest defence, it makes it hard to import in times of war. As well as curbs on foreign consumer goods, there’d be runs on more basic products like medical kits, fuel canisters and masking tape to stop windows shattering during bombing raids.

Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor
When they first invaded, Russia's bigger and more powerful army was expected to have a much greater impact, but so far, the Ukrainian forces have managed to push them back in lots of areas. Newsround has travelled to Ukraine to meet some of the young people affected by the war. https://euronewstop.co.uk/world-war-iii-begins-with-forgetting.html visited schools where air raid sirens and sheltering in underground classrooms are now a part of children's everyday lives. On 24 February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered his army to forcefully cross the border and invade neighbouring Ukraine. Nato says its forces are on standby and more ships and fighter jets are being sent to the region.

There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south. "Our advice to them is very clear; this is a very dangerous situation and for your own safety, you should seek to make your way out of Ukraine. It will be a very volatile situation if there is conflict there," he said. What we might want to worry about more is the impact on energy prices. A number of people have been killed and thousands have fled their homes. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country.
Maybe it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street. The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. The conflict in Ukraine offers a glimpse of how Britain might prepare for self-defence.

Explosions heard across the country
Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery. Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January. Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have "severe economic consequences," Moscow's military build-up on the border continues. Trump was "very friendly towards Putin, at least in his public language," said Taylor, and also publicly criticized NATO. This meant Putin could wait to see if the alliance would " kind of shatter from within."

The United States has deployed 3,000 troops to Europe in a show of solidarity for NATO and will reportedly send another 3,000 to Poland, though the Biden administration has been firm that US soldiers will not fight in Ukraine if war breaks out. A number of civilian areas have been targeted, including one apartment complex outside of Kharkiv - a city of 1.4 million people in north-eastern Ukraine. Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025, at the earliest. A second night of attacks followed with heavy gunfire and explosions in parts of the capital.
Defense analysts argue that neither side would want to go into negotiations unless they're in a position of strength and able to dictate terms. Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they're deployed in Ukraine. The U.S. is not providing F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to provide their own jets.

One is to take back Kupiansk, the gateway to Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. It is very hard to measure the total impact the war has had, but there have been many casualties and parts of the country will need totally rebuilding. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. The conflict in Ukraine offers a glimpse of how Britain might prepare for self-defence.
Finland, Nato's newest member and a country which has an 800-mile border with Russia, has wider conscription. Around 80% of the male population complete some form of military service. Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too.


My Website: https://euronewstop.co.uk/world-war-iii-begins-with-forgetting.html