Notes

Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024
For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.


Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America, told Newsweek recently that Zelensky—emboldened by Putin's recent battlefield losses—could very well try to regain control of Crimea. Budanov added that he expects Ukraine's military to make a large push against the invading Russians in the spring. According to him, those efforts could lead to what Ukraine feels would be an end to the war. In a recent interview, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence hinted at a possible end date for his country's war with Russia. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved.

Is Russia still using the concept of denazification as justification for the war? — Anya
Another senior official, who spoke on condition he was not named, went further, suggesting that President Putin would be forced to dismiss his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, perhaps as a response to another military setback. Other senior officials in Kyiv say they are convinced that Mr Putin is opposed by informal but organised networks of disenchanted insiders. It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. It started, they said, with his disastrous decision to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on.


It is theoretically possible for the U.S. to sanction countries that maintain economic ties with Russia. The best precedent for this is perhaps the Helms–Burton Act, which extended U.S. sanctions on Cuba toward any foreign company doing business with both Cuba and the U.S. at the same time. When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable.

Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024
U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. And even though the fall of the Soviet Union was notable for its lack of bloodshed, many in Ukraine refer to today's conflict as a true "war of independence." Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands." All these measures were approved when both the House and the Senate were controlled by Democrats. Some Republicans are saying the U.S. should stop funding Ukraine.


For example, the tactic of repurposing dishwasher electronics for weapons, mocked in the West as a sign of desperation, probably means “somebody thought about that from the beginning,” he said. Past attempts to squeeze the will for war out of Moscow economically also didn’t yield the immediate results for which experts hoped. Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all.

Long war
Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages. https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-will-help-ukraine-if-russia-invades.html provided more than $100 billion in aid to Kyiv since Russia invaded last year, including $61.4 billion in military aid.

Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025, at the earliest. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes.
Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy. The prospects for an end of the war in Ukraine remain bleak.

While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America, told Newsweek recently that Zelensky—emboldened by Putin's recent battlefield losses—could very well try to regain control of Crimea. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force.
Homepage: https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-will-help-ukraine-if-russia-invades.html