Notes

Is Russia invading Ukraine and what will happen next? Ukraine
Those opposing Russia's leadership have either fled or, as with main opposition figure Alexei Navalny, been thrown into prison. Neither Russia nor Ukraine give details of their own losses, so reliable numbers are extremely difficult. But Russians losses have been especially heavy in recent weeks, with several hundred deaths every day on the battlefields of the east. Russia's warnings to the West against arming Ukraine have gone unheeded, with Western assurances of support "for as long as it takes" and pledges that Nato will never be divided.

The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. "Oftentimes, cyber-operations go hand in hand with influence," she said. However, he warned of "chaos" if European states do not show enough unity and determination.
While cities such as Mariupol were flattened, details of war crimes have emerged against civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, and have led to an independent report that accused Russia itself of state-orchestrated incitement to genocide. To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. After a series of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over. When Vladimir Putin sent up to 200,000 soldiers into Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he wrongly assumed he could sweep into the capital, Kyiv, in a matter of days and depose the government. Ukrainians had hoped for months that the forecasts of an invasion from Russia, a nation with which they share much history and culture, could not be true.

Will Russia's Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine?
Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories. Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., told CNBC on Friday that the Russians "have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. This thing could really drag on for a long time."


According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself. All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. After many months of Moscow engaging in sham dialogue and blatantly lying to other countries and institutions, including NATO and the OSCE, all trust has been eroded. Moreover, by creating economic shocks in the energy markets and weaponising famine as a political instrument, Russia has further globalised the consequences of its war. With Russia's formidable air and naval power, any offensive would most likely feature bombing raids, missile strikes and cyberattacks that could devastate Ukraine's military infrastructure, disrupt communications and pin down ground troops. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it.

National Security
But until this week, Russia still recognised them as part of Ukraine. Blaming Nato's expansion eastwards is a Russian narrative that has gained some ground in Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato turn the clock back to 1997 and remove its forces and military infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Should he need to, President Putin could extend mobilisation and drag out the war.

The U.S. is not providing F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to provide their own jets. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite.
Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. All these measures were approved when both the House and the Senate were controlled by Democrats. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well.

NATO vs. Russia
When the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991, the new Russian Federation inherited all of the USSR's treaties, diplomatic relationships, even embassies. Meanwhile, https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-ukraine-is-important.html had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23. The money Congress has already approved will help cover Ukraine's needs for the next several months. But at some point later this year, President Biden is certain to seek more money for Ukraine, and we'll see how the Republicans in the House respond.

While cities such as Mariupol were flattened, details of war crimes have emerged against civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, and have led to an independent report that accused Russia itself of state-orchestrated incitement to genocide. An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". While many experts calculate that risk to be low - not higher than five percent - Putin and his aides have chosen to abandon the rational caution exercised by the majority of his Soviet predecessors.
Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced. Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural treasures, private homes and industrial centres are either destroyed or pillaged, with stolen goods being sent to Russia in an organised manner. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged.


William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. In sum, the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power. While Ukrainians may be unable to defeat a large-scale invasion, they could inflict high casualties, a sensitive issue in Russia. Occupying forces might be stretched thin and vulnerable to stay-behind insurgents. Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.


While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced. Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery. Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January.

Russia has 100,000 troops lined up next to Ukraine, with tanks and artillery. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. NATO and Ukraine say Russia has launched cross-border artillery attacks, armed the separatists and moved weapons and personnel into the area. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority.
Ukraine could benefit from better command and control, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance capabilities. All this could help it degrade a blitz, although supply or absorptive constraints might be hindrances. "The most likely scenario in my mind is a major military offensive in Ukraine," said Vindman, a former director for European affairs at the U.S. Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging. Intense fighting continues nonetheless, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances.

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