Notes

Ukraine war: despite Russian setbacks, an end to the conflict is not yet in sight
The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine?

Ukrainian armed forces operating in the region denied they had carried out the strike, stating Sunday that they "did not conduct any combat operations with means of destruction." “The narrative is the great struggle of the Cold War,” he said, a framing that has helped to attract new recruits. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. These include successful drone strikes against airbases in Russia in December and a missile strike against Russian troop concentration area in Makiivka, close to Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on New Year’s Day.
Currently, western intelligence estimates Russia is taking 1,000 casualties a day. There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia. One key question that could determine the war’s end game is how long Ukraine’s backers can keep up their arms donations to Kyiv. The Biden administration earlier this month announced it is sending Ukraine the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb.

A new world, whatever the scenario
But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.


Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Maybe https://anotepad.com/notes/yjasn78n takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street.

BBC News Services
Or Mr Putin could resort to more-drastic measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, Dr Oliker warns. "The Ukrainians, I think, have confounded most expectations — [but], I think, this is all contingent on Western support continuing," King's College London professor of conflict and security Tracey German said. Russian and Ukrainian forces have essentially been locked in a slow, grinding fight since November, particularly around the gateway to the north and central parts of Luhansk, as the war shifted into positional warfare. In a two-hour address on Tuesday night, Vladimir Putin gave no indication the war would end any time soon, promising to continue Russia's offensive against its neighbour "step by step". However, Jones said that NATO declaring war on Russia could create a major war that could pull in other countries like China, which is an outcome that the organization likely wants to avoid. In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.

One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight. US President Joe Biden's recent unannounced trip to Ukraine was also intended to rally NATO support for Ukraine, after insisting there would be no backing down from what he's portrayed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy. Ordinary citizens with normal, everyday lives were suddenly making heartbreaking decisions over whether to stay and fight or undertake the treacherous journey to a border crossing. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Despite Biden’s efforts early in his administration to repair this damage, many Germans and Europeans are appalled by the divisions and partisanship they see in US politics.
To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. "The price we pay is in money, while the price the Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price," NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of last year. In the meantime, the costs of the war would continue to weigh heavily on Russia, possibly weakening Mr Putin's internal support. Any progress towards talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of temporary arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.


Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Whatever scenario comes next, there is little doubt that Russia will enter a period of faster decline.


And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. In his speech, Bush raised the possibility that the war could divide the country and never formally end – just like with what happened in the Korean Peninsula.

In an interview with the U.K.'s Channel 4 News that aired Friday, Zelenskyy invited the former president and front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination to visit Kyiv, but only if Trump delivers on his promise. It comes as the neighboring countries vow to end an ongoing and heated dispute over cross-border trade flows. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his main goal is to drive all Russian troops out, to "de-occupy our whole territory". The Ukraine war will also help Beijing gauge what the world’s response would likely be to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russia's military and other government agencies were taking the necessary measures, including when it comes to air defences, after the suspected Ukrainian drone attack on the terminal. Peskov added on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had received reports on the Donetsk attack and that Russia's "special military operation" — as it calls its invasion of Ukraine — would continue in order to "protect" people. Ukrainian armed forces operating in the region denied they had carried out the attack, stating Sunday that they "did not conduct any combat operations with means of destruction." Ukrainians are undeterred in their fighting spirit, and Kyiv’s international partners show no sign of weakening in their resolve of support. On the contrary, all the signs are that he will double down and continue to lay waste to a country whose very right to exist he denies.


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