Notes

Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion
The Prime Minister has announced 1,000 more British troops will be put on alert in the UK, however, he said Nato is unwilling to send troops into Ukraine itself. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. A victorious Russian army at the end of the Ukraine war, the ISW says, would be combat experienced and considerably larger than its pre-2022 forces. They say that Ukraine - with Western support - has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources.

The nation’s four Vanguard-class nuclear submarines can each carry up to 16 missiles. So far the UK government has sent troops (now withdrawn) to train the Ukrainian army, and supplied them with defensive weapons. "The enemy is adapting, and we must also adapt. A modern war is a war of technologies. Whoever wins in the technological sense will have victory," he said. The main goal became the "liberation of Donbas" - broadly referring to Ukraine's two industrial regions in the east of Luhansk and Donetsk. A lot of the stark warnings we are hearing from our own government should be seen in that light.
Kyiv believes Russia is also seeking to depose the pro-European government in Moldova, where Russian troops are based in the breakaway region of Transnistria bordering Ukraine. Putin watchers believe he will seek to extend control of the four regions that he has declared to be part of Russia, not just in Donbas, but towards the key city of Zaporizhzhia. While cities such as Mariupol were flattened, details of war crimes have emerged against civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, and have led to an independent report that accused Russia itself of state-orchestrated incitement to genocide. Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked war has been a disaster for itself and the country it was unleashed on. So far, it has achieved little more than exposing the brutality and inadequacy of the Russian military. He has spoken of the capture of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, as a "significant result for Russia".

Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?
As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade. If you are a frontline Ukrainian soldier in eastern Ukraine then clearly the situation is extremely dangerous. And for millions of Ukrainian people the fears over how the crisis will impact their daily lives is ever present. But western leaders still fear Russia could be poised to make a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.


The United States and NATO allies worry that Russia may be planning an invasion. Washington has proclaimed an “ironclad commitment” to Ukraine's security. Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea.

If Russia Invaded Ukraine
But when curfews remain in force for 36 hours, food and water starts running short. These are unpredictable, unfathomable times but I would still like to believe the answer is no - no to the bombing of Britain or any other country. Article 5 of Nato's constitution states that "an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies." But they've repeatedly said there will be no Nato "boots on the ground" because Ukraine is not a Nato member. They've sent weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, and trained Ukrainian soldiers in recent years - indeed right up to the Russian invasion. Some Poles I've spoken to near the border feel anxious about their own security - but their primary focus remains on helping Ukrainian friends or relatives on the other side or those who have fled here.


Gen Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Joint Forces Command, told the committee that he doubted there were “sufficient munitions to sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than about a week”. Right now, such scenarios tend to exercise only the minds of Ministry of Defence war-gamers and military thriller writers. But far-fetched as they might sound, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of Britain’s army, believes it is time we dwelt on them more. While Russia’s forces are strong they would be dwarfed by Nato’s collective power, making touching a Nato member incredibly risky. Russia officially claims that it is an expeditionary oceanographic ship used for marine research, however intelligence sources told DR it is actually a spy vessel.


Russia has captured the town of Soledar this year and has hopes of seizing the eastern city of Bakhmut on the road to key cities to the west, and of recapturing territory it lost last autumn. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-russia-invading-ukraine-newsround.html was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run.

Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. "Revenge" could take the form of cyber attacks - something the National Cyber Security Centre has already warned about. But the alliance has also made clear that it believes that Ukraine has a right to make its own decisions as a sovereign nation, and it is not willing to give Russia a veto on Ukraine's future.
Even weakened, Russia remains capable of inflicting heavy damage upon others. Counter-intuitively, preparing for a possible war with Russia is the best approach to prevent it. While the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 – though effectively torn to shreds by Russia – was not formally revoked at the Summit, any self-restrictions which NATO took on as part of the agreement should now be considered null and void.

Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come. NATO’s response to the war, balancing increasingly strong support to Ukraine with a justified reluctance to avoid open conflict with Russia, has been more or less vindicated. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. He can be expected to put pro-Moscow politicians in charge in Kyiv while eliminating opponents and fixing elections (as in Russia). It is the largest such exodus since the Bolshevik revolution and could result in an enormous country-wide brain drain; something that is already being experienced in the IT sector.
They include potentially crippling curbs on Russian banks, corporations, exports, loans and technology transfers, diplomatic isolation and the targeting of Putin’s personal wealth and that of his oligarch cronies. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany will be frozen indefinitely. Putin wants an institutionally weak, dependent Ukraine that is responsive to his will and detached from the west – like Belarus. He can be expected to put pro-Moscow politicians in charge in Kyiv while eliminating opponents and fixing elections (as in Russia). US officials believe the Kremlin has drafted a list of public figures earmarked for arrest or assassination.


The decision marks the end of the Minsk peace deal, a troubled road map out of the conflict that would have left the territories in Ukraine. That deal also contained a ceasefire agreement, which is now also void. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that has occurred since 2014. Putin has also sent his military on a “peacekeeping mission” to Ukraine, meaning that Russia will formally occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory for a second time following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. A document signed by Putin on Monday also allows him to establish military bases or place missiles in the territories.


Website: https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-russia-invading-ukraine-newsround.html