Notes

Opinion Russians Know Their Country Has Suffered a Moral Defeat The New York Times
However in Russian media there has been no mention of the thousands of arrested protesters, or of the many more who took to the streets in support of Ukraine. Last week the Kremlin sent out letters to ten publications, warning them not to use the words "invasion," "attack" or "declaration of war" in their coverage. Ukraine's armed forces have been fighting against the Russian military for a year now, and countries around the the world have been supporting Ukraine by supplying weapons and armed vehicles, such as tanks, to defend themselves.


A bus service has started up connecting the city to the local cemetery where growing numbers of soldiers killed in Ukraine are being buried. In Pskov, near the Estonian and Latvian borders, the atmosphere is gloomy and everyone pretends the war has nothing to do with them, I am told. If they are troubled by Russia bombing a city where many have friends and relatives, then they're trying not to show it. But surrounded by reminders of Russia's often relentlessly violent past I felt war was now inevitable. My daily walks were my way of saying goodbye to a world, and perhaps even a country, that could never be the same again.

BBC News Services
Lithuania will consider cases individually, but the prime minister clarified that it was "not the duty of other countries to save Russians fleeing mobilisation". Protesters came out in several cities shouting "no to war!" and even "Putin to the trenches!". More than a thousand people were detained and some were then served with call-up papers at the police station. Among the most prominent outlets are the Meduza and Mediazona websites - both have been blocked in Russia and both are labelled as "foreign agents" by the Russian government.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left Russia, including me and my BBC Russian colleagues. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian attacks are increasing again in some parts of the country but they have not yet had any significant impact. Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country. To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. But surrounded by reminders of Russia's often relentlessly violent past I felt war was now inevitable. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne.
Meanwhile Russia's currency, the rouble, fell to an all-time low against the dollar and the euro. "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said Russia was a "proud nation, and we love our country. We have not any other motherland, and we must protect it." Tyab asked the lawmaker, Popov, it the invasion had been worth it, given the loss of life and the international condemnation and sanctions Russia is now experiencing.

What do Russians see and hear about the war in Ukraine?
A U.S. official told CBS News on Wednesday that between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops may already have been killed since fighting began in Ukraine on February 24. "You keep referring to it as a military operation, but this is an invasion, this is a war," Tyab challenged Popov. "Our government tells us that [the] military operation is going pretty well," he said.


His work focuses on the Premier League, LaLiga, MLS, Liga MX and the global game. Speaking to CNBC Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist, said that Putin had “spectacularly miscalculated” the response in Russia to war with Ukraine. "It's to send in non-uniformed troops to stir up trouble, part of 'sub-threshold warfare'. I'm worried it will spill over into the Baltics." If Russia's invasion turns into a long-term occupation of Ukraine then it is conceivable that Western nations may well support a Ukrainian insurgency, just as the US supported the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s.

Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts
Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine. Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment. The village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region could offer a similar stepping stone but Russian forces are reported to have made some advances in the area. Ukraine first announced it had made a breakthrough in mid-November - the river had separated Ukrainian and Russian forces since Moscow's troops withdrew from Kherson a year ago. A source familiar with the situation said the drone fell at about 7am local time but had not affected fuel output.


"In the short term," says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. https://www.openlearning.com/u/michaelsenbishop-s2dhzs/blog/WinLoseStalemateOrAShockHowMightTheUkraineWarEndUkraine have been offered the opportunity to live in other countries like Germany, France, Poland and the UK, with a chance of safety, food, healthcare and education for young people. Since the invasion, the price of everyday items across the world has increased. This is because many countries are no longer using gas supplied by Russia, so there is greater demand and a higher cost for gas supplied from other places. Countries around Europe along with the United States, have also put significant limits on Russian trade and supplies, (called sanctions) with the aim of forcing Putin to stop his actions.

The fact that the majority of Russians tune in to TV news means they are inclined to at least hear the Kremlin's message - and possibly believe it. Many who study and report on Russia, me included, believe a small percentage of people actively support the war, and a small percentage actively oppose it. Lithuania will consider cases individually, but the prime minister clarified that it was "not the duty of other countries to save Russians fleeing mobilisation". "In the short term," says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance.
The gloves are off, the pretences dropped, diplomacy is dead - at least for now. Ukraine is under full-scale Russian invasion and is fighting for its very survival. It is not clear exactly how many refugees have travelled to the UK, but recent government figures show around 160,000 Ukrainian refugees have officially settled here.


Here's my website: https://www.openlearning.com/u/michaelsenbishop-s2dhzs/blog/WinLoseStalemateOrAShockHowMightTheUkraineWarEndUkraine