Notes

How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures
A day of mourning has been declared Monday for the victims of Sunday's shelling of a marketplace in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. "We believe the plant is likely to return to significant capacity within weeks or, at worst, months," analysts at Moscow-based BCS brokerage said in a note. At least 25 people died in the attack on the market in Donetsk city, while 20 others were injured.

President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. The swift Western response will give ammunition to Chinese proponents of more fully decoupling the country’s financial system from the West. An end to the bloodshed and destruction of Ukraine can be negotiated, but such negotiations need to be mediated carefully. Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well.
Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. A similar situation emerged after the fighting in Ukraine in 2014, with the unresolved conflict featuring a form of continued Russian occupation for many years. The "special military operation" in Ukraine has already beaten most analysts expectations and, with more offensives planned for this year, there appears to be no end in sight. Professor Clarke said the downfall of Mr Putin was only a matter of time and would likely be brought about from within the military and Russia's security service, with the support of oligarchs fed up with the Kremlin. The current outlook for a negotiated deal would likely involve Ukraine ceding some territory to Russia, analysts say.

Death, injury toll rises after Donetsk market attack
In addition, Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian supply lines and made some territorial gains in Donbas over recent weeks. Ukraine’s military successes are not only a consequence of the country’s soldiers’ skills and determination but also of the support it has received from its western partners. The US, EU, and UK have all assured Ukraine that they will continue to stand with the country. Areas in the west of the country, including Lviv, have experienced missile attacks, but no attempt by Russian forces to take and occupy ground.


Russia has since been focusing its military operations in the south, east and north-east of Ukraine, seizing large areas. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. US-based thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said it had seen continued reports that Russia had not been able to produce missiles and artillery ammunition at pre-war levels for its own forces to use - making it unlikely to be able to export arms at pre-war levels.

Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the Kremlin
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, surrounding the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Alexei Kulemzin said Ukraine was behind the strike on the eastern Ukrainian city, which is currently under Russian occupation. https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/russia-s-wanton-destruction-against-ukraine-must-be-stopped-uk-statement-to-185ac427-d0a2-490e-97bc-bbcb3f149802 , like the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, too have hinged on such external assistance. At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark.


About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. Russia's defence ministry has denied attacking Ukrainian cities - saying it was targeting military infrastructure, air defence and air forces with "high-precision weapons". The EU has even taken the unusual step of getting out in front of the United States, with Germany unilaterally suspending its Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline with Russia and the bloc moving first on stronger financial sanctions against Moscow. Most importantly, Germany, having discarded its pacifist posture, is now re-militarizing as its assumptions crumble about Russia’s intentions and the power of economic ties to reshape geopolitics.


However, there are notable differences, because the two German states – like the two Koreas – were both recognized internationally. Furthermore, there was no armed conflict between East and West Germany. The German case is used by Kyiv to demonstrate that, despite the Russian occupation of part of its territory, free Ukraine can be a member of NATO, just like the Federal Republic of Germany once was.

Describing 60 clashes yesterday, Zelenskyy said the most intense fighting was in the Avdiivka area, as well as in Bakhmut, Maryinka and Kupiansk. Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. "We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia.
If the West remains united with Ukraine, it could make the costs of the war so insurmountable for Russia that it breaks the level of commitment of its political elite. The Ukraine war has had tremendous ripple effects throughout the world's economy by driving up gas prices and inflation rates, impeding the flow of goods, exacerbating world hunger and stretching the entire humanitarian system. The longer the war drags on, there is an increased chance it may slow to "more of a nasty simmer", like the one prior to the full-scale invasion in February, Ms Oliker says.

But to analysts, like Morris, the prospect of Putin being removed is extremely unlikely — and the chances that whoever replaces him will be less hawkish are even more remote. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit.
In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons. And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble. As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing.


However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy.

“The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said. Despite Ukraine’s gains against Russia, experts believe a frozen conflict or painful truce is most likely. The White House, moreover, should be concerned by the low popularity of the president, whose approval rating has hovered in the low forties for some time.
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