Notes

When will the war in Ukraine end? And 9 more questions about Russia's invasion : NPR
Meanwhile, Putin can look to the post-Soviet space for an example of how to play the long game, said David Rivera assistant professor of government at Hamilton College, Clinton, New York. Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi's assessment that fighting had entered a "stalemate" was rejected by Zelensky amid rumors of a split between the country's most prominent figures, and reports of a reshuffle of top brass in the New Year. That plane, he said, was followed by another Il-76 with more prisoners on board, Kartapolov said.

The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured. Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected". Adm Rob Bauer, who heads the alliance's military committee, said the public needed to change their mindset for an era "when anything can happen at any time". Ukrainian troops are also pushing back hard against Russian forces, focusing their efforts on breaking through Russia's heavily fortified defensive lines across occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor in Ukraine's internal affairs ministry, posted a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, in which Shoigu said the Russian army is continuing to "build up the combat power" of its forces to face Ukraine's counteroffensive.


Hein Goemans I mean, some people are trying to pitch this as, oh, the United States versus Russia, which is a big mistake. The support of the west is crucial, but it is not on behalf of the direct interests of the United States and the west. It is certainly on behalf of the indirect interest of the security architecture of Europe and the whole world. But the people are doing the fighting and the dying, and whose interests are most directly at stake are the Ukrainians.

Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance.

Russia's at war with Ukraine. Here's how we got here
By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.


To achieve its military goals, Shoigu said Russia was supplying its troops with modern weapons and offering improved training, despite reports indicating Russian troops lack advanced training and are low on weapons. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. US-based thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said it had seen continued reports that Russia had not been able to produce missiles and artillery ammunition at pre-war levels for its own forces to use - making it unlikely to be able to export arms at pre-war levels. Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply. Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.

Making weapons
At the moment, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has riveted the world, drawing more attention than the ongoing slaughters in other nations—a double standard that has been widely noted. But that gap in coverage is likely to become even more striking the longer the conflict continues, because the factors that make a long war in Ukraine seemingly inevitable are the same ones that make it unlikely to slip from the world’s collective radar. If conflicts in places such as Ethiopia, Palestine, Kashmir, Syria, and Yemen have proved anything, it’s that wars are easy to start, but are also brutal, intractable, and difficult to end. The fickle nature of the international media means that protracted conflicts quickly lose the world’s attention, if they ever had it to begin with.

A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week. Outlier events cannot be ruled out, such as the brazen challenge to Putin's authority by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose death in a plane crash followed his seizure of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and a march on Moscow. Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained. There are concerns that, given Trump's previous good relations with Moscow and "America First" policy, aid for Ukraine could be shelved rapidly. By committing this terrorist attack, the Ukrainian leadership has showed its true colors — it neglected the lives of its citizens.
Hein Goemans So I study war because it’s terrible, and because it’s truly terrible. I was raised, you know, in the Netherlands and with family members who had fought and who had died in the second world war in the camps and, you know, and elsewhere. It’s gonna take a lot of dying and a lot of death and destruction before both sides say, okay, we kind of, we can anticipate what the war is gonna end like and like, and we’re going to accept that and we’re gonna make a deal on that basis. Before we get to the show, I’d like to tell you about a survey we’re conducting to find out more from our listeners about what you think of the show and what you’d like to hear more of. You can find the survey at ft.com/rachmansurvey and we’ll put the link in our show notes.


Recent assessments by the ISW show Russian forces have made advances north of Bakhmut. It notes the building gives Ukraine a "localised defensive advantage" and says Russian forces will probably suffer significant losses if they attempt to assault the facility. Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine. Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment.


Russia already controls most of Sievierodonetsk, Haidai said on Sunday morning, and if Ukrainian forces lose the city, fighting is expected to focus on neighbouring Lysychansk, from which 32 residents have been evacuated over the weekend despite heavy shelling. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Fragments of what appears to be an anti-aircraft guided missile were found at the crash site of the downed Russian military transport plane, Russian new agency TASS reported Thursday. It has also changed conscription laws, foreseeing the need to bolster its forces, which are dwarfed in size by Russia's but are more highly trained and equipped. Germany's Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, recently told a German newspaper "we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a Nato country one day". Russia accused Ukrainian forces of shooting down the plane with Western-provided missiles on Wednesday, saying the plane had been on its way to a prisoner exchange.
But he said even that is not enough - so the Army should be designed to expand rapidly "to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon, and train and equip the citizen army that must follow". https://telegra.ph/Ukraine-war-Countdown-has-begun-to-end-of-Putin-say-Kyiv-officials-02-12 was not calling for conscription in his speech. He is a strong believer in a professional army made up of volunteers. But he was making the point that if war broke out troop numbers would be too small.

The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.
There may have been no lightning breakthroughs in 2023, but Ukraine can point to some gains this year. Kyiv has reclaimed more than half of the land Russia had captured since the start of the war in February 2022 and grabbed headlines by liberating villages and towns in the south and east. "Unfortunately, there is a very real chance that the Russo-Ukraine war will last well into 2024 and possibly beyond," he said.


Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the costs of war were high, but the price of letting Moscow achieve its military goals was even greater. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans.

Website: https://telegra.ph/Ukraine-war-Countdown-has-begun-to-end-of-Putin-say-Kyiv-officials-02-12