Notes

Ukraine series: how long will the war last?
The Baltic states and Poland would like this to happen quickly, but Estonia's prime minister, Kaja Kallas, admitted this week that "all the next sanctions will be more difficult". But Joe Biden has given different signals at different times. Calling Putin a "war criminal" back in March and seeming to hint at the need for regime change in Moscow, but also reluctant this week to send Ukraine rocket systems "that can strike into Russia". The following day, Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, speaking at the White House, said people in Europe wanted "to think about the possibility of bringing a ceasefire and starting again some credible negotiations". Russia’s battlefield losses are so huge that western officials doubt it has the capacity to mount an offensive on the same scale again.

The current situation also suggests a prolonged fight, given the significant loss of territory Ukraine has suffered in recent weeks in the east – half of the Donetsk region and almost all of the Luhansk region – alongside Russia’s early gains in the south. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. Smith indicated he disagrees with the Biden administration’s decision not to send long-range missiles, noting every Ukrainian official assured him they would not use them to attack Russia.

Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the Kremlin
So he’s the linchpin of the regime and the question is, does Putin have the repressive apparatus of a Saddam Hussein who basically killed the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south when he lost the Gulf War? Or is he kind of a regime that cannot fully repress any domestic opposition? I am still of the belief that while he’s pretty repressive and he’s switching more to a totalitarian state, he’s not there yet and he’s really literally at risk. Hein Goemans If Russia believes that it can still mobilise and has another trick up its sleeve, it won’t do it. Or they may try very risky strategies, as the Germans did in the first world war.


Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/ukraine-conflict-simple-visual-guide-to-the-russian-invasion-1707769566 says its forces have repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka itself, as well as from settlements to the north west, south west, and directly west of the town. The town is sometimes described as the gateway to the city of Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia and its proxy forces since 2014. Taking Avdiivka - which lies close by - would allow Russia to push the front line back, making it harder for the Ukrainian forces to retake the territory. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. However, the continuous push for more weapons is countered by concerns in some Western circles of being drawn into a war with Russia.

Inside the British Army drill for war with Russia - on the streets of Rutland
Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said.


When the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991, the new Russian Federation inherited all of the USSR's treaties, diplomatic relationships, even embassies. Meanwhile, Ukraine had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23.

What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel
Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.


The human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is growing with the number of civilians killed mounting and devastating scenes of destruction spread across the country. For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war "in one day" if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. This is an example that you see occurring over and over again. I think that the Ukrainians are highly motivated and therefore are willing to tolerate very high costs. I mean, the Kremlin has a very effective propaganda apparatus and is successful in inculcating some belief among the ordinary Russians that this is a just war, and thereby driving up the willingness of the Russian people to suffer costs.


“The ultimate end to this is the Ukrainians take back as much pre-Feb. Retired Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe, a former commander of the U.S. Army’s maneuver warfare school at Fort Benning, Georgia, said Western upgrades offer Ukraine the chance to dominate the close fight with Russian adversaries and conclude the tactical fighting to its advantage. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine.


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