Notes

Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024
Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.


Industrial-age warfare is a struggle between societies. What happens on the battlefield becomes ultimately only the symptom of that struggle. This will make the war in Ukraine a longer and more traumatic enterprise than anything Europe has known since the middle of the last century.

Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the Kremlin
Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. https://matzen-larsen.thoughtlanes.net/ukraine-conflict-what-we-know-about-the-invasion-1707342278 from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Still, it’s an open question whether the U.S. will be able to indefinitely continue its current level of support, said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser who has studied the volumes of artillery used in the war.

This brilliant plan was supposedly designed to win the war quickly. And in almost all cases, it’s had the opposite effect. So it’s a somewhat naive perspective because I think that Russia has plenty of hardware and mobilisation potential to keep fighting for a long time. Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine.
But at this point, they are a relatively small number. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes.

Russia to suspend participation in nuclear arms treaty with US
This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.

If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. Smith indicated he disagrees with the Biden administration’s decision not to send long-range missiles, noting every Ukrainian official assured him they would not use them to attack Russia. This would make a future Ukrainian state less functional and prosperous,” said Shea, who is also a former deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges at NATO.
So for a war to end, the minimum war aims of at least one side must change. And then the question you’ve got to ask is, what causes those war aims to change? War actually does something that we cannot do in peacetime. It lets you see on the battlefield how strong you really are, how resolved and how strong your opponent is.

BBC News Services
After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. Diplomats say feelers are being stretched out to Moscow.


These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.


On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there was “no use in setting an end date” to what Russia calls “special military operation in Ukraine”, adding that its objective to “liberate” Donbas had not changed. Thousands of troops have died, billions of dollars in military hardware wasted and entire cities subjected to relentless bombardment – and more than four months on, Russia’s fierce military campaign in Ukraine continues unabated. Russian forces continued to surround and attack Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, and the second-biggest city of Kharkiv. Tanks were spotted moving towards the capital, whilst Russian troops seized the city of Melitopol in Ukraine’s south-eastern Zaporizhzhya region. Ukrainian armed forces started to show fierce resistance, thwarting a number of attacks and Russian aircrafts. Hein Goemans Well, Russia’s best hope is breaking up the western support for Ukraine, and that can happen in a variety of ways, right?


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