Notes

Ukraine says it shot down Russian A-50 spy plane
As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. While climate change is often deemed a "threat multiplier", it is clear from the last week "that fossil fuels are a threat multiplier too", she said. "We live in an unstable world. If rich counties fail to support vulnerable countries in tackling climate impacts and in their clean energy transition, it will only fuel a spiral of instability." If one country reliant on Russian supplies receives less gas, they have to replace it, impacting the supplies of gas for other countries - that's why British energy prices and bills are still affected in a similar way to European ones.


Russia has seized Ukrainian territory before, when it annexed Crimea in 2014, following fierce protests in Ukraine that toppled the country's pro-Russian president. Russian forces seized control of Crimea before the territory voted to join Russia in a referendum the West and Ukraine deemed illegal. Officials said there had been no specific threats to British diplomats but about half of the staff working in Kyiv will return to the UK. The US has ordered relatives of its embassy staff to leave, saying an invasion could come "at any time".

Does military conscription still exist in the UK in times of war?
Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. The country is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, meaning conflict is likely to cause supply problems, especially in Europe.


Many are now trying to escape the country, with UN estimates suggesting over 100,000 people have already fled from their homes. President Putin this month recognised the two regions held by the Russian-backed separatists as independent states and ordered Russian troops there, tearing up a peace deal. A second night of attacks followed with heavy gunfire and explosions in parts of the capital. The COP talks are designed to give all countries an equal seat at the table, with anyone able to block progress, although these days few want to be perceived as great disruptors. A small group of around 18 Conservative MPs want the UK to increase its own fossil fuel supply by boosting North Sea fossil fuel production and lift the fracking moratorium. "Renewables have a distinct security of supply advantage in that they don't require refuelling," explains environment expert Antony Froggatt.

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While analysts say a direct conflict between NATO and Russia is unlikely, it is possible - particularly in the Baltic states, or Finland. Throughout the Cold War, Britain's military planners thought long and hard about what was needed to beat the Soviets if World War Three ever broke out. NATO and the Ministry of Defence will be studying the battlefields of Ukraine closely to work out what it would mean if British forces ever became involved in a fight with the Russians.


NATO believed the main threat to Western Europe came from advancing Soviet tanks and developed equipment to use against them on the battlefield. The latest versions of those weapons includes the NLAWs (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapons) and Javelins. Air Vice Marshal Bell says the other reason the attack on the Moskva was successful was because it had been manoeuvring in a way that left it vulnerable to attack. British forces are often trained to behave in ways that make them less vulnerable.

Homes for Ukraine shows flaws – and opportunities – in the UK’s asylum system
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden are among the leaders condemning the action. Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser, joined us to discuss the Ukraine crisis. In fact Johnson emphasised that this problem affects the whole of the continent, by describing Russia’s intimidation tactics as Europe’s “biggest security crisis” for decades. Ukraine wants the opposite – it aspires to be part of the EU and Nato (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) rather than under Russia’s control and so is firmly resisting Putin’s threats.


Now, the threat of an encounter with Russia - regarded as a military peer - is very present and it is arguable the British and other allied forces are not yet equipped for that. Nato says its forces are on standby and more ships and fighter jets are being sent to the region. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-armoured-vehicles-is-the-uk-sending-to-ukraine.html says Nato will “continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies”. Streams of cars have been seen leaving major cities and are queuing to cross borders into neighbouring countries. A number of civilian areas have been targeted, including one apartment complex outside of Kharkiv - a city of 1.4 million people in north-eastern Ukraine.

He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Conservative backbencher Alicia Kearns tweeted on Thursday that the Government should consider cyber attacks on Russia if Mr Putin does not withdraw troops. The country is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, meaning conflict is likely to cause supply problems, especially in Europe. Some global wheat prices have risen by more than 40 per cent this year and food and non-alcoholic beverages comprise 11.5 per cent of the CPI basket. Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances.
If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. Permanently higher energy prices could deliver an adverse supply shock that reduced potential output in the medium term, which in turn would damage the structural fiscal position. Satellite imagery suggests Russia is sending troops towards its border with Ukraine. Russia denies it is preparing for an invasion and accuses Nato of upping its activity in the region. Germany has said it might need to use coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, for longer than expected, in order to free itself from gas. With a grave humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine, some fear the war will distract from climate action.

Ukraine has struggled to make significant recent advances against Russian forces in the south-east. If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia. In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the war effort. The rest is made up of imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported to the UK by sea from countries such as Qatar and the US.
Our fiscal forecast captures the direct effect of lower equity prices on capital gains tax on the disposal of financial assets, though we do not assume any indirect wealth effect from lower equity prices on consumption and GDP. As a result of the conflict, oil prices have surged past $100 (£75) a barrel to hit their highest level for more than seven years, which will impact already-rising petrol prices in the UK. Since 2014, Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine's armed forces have been fighting a war in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in which more than 14,000 people have died. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, British Petroleum (BP) ditched its 19.75% shareholding in Russian oil giant Rosneft. Several other fossil fuel companies including TotalEnergies, Shell, Equinor, ExxonMobil are also ceasing ventures with Russian majors.

The new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is tasked with plotting the UK’s course out of the crisis. For decades the European Union has heavily relied on Russia's oil and gas, generating money and cash for Russia. But far-fetched as they might sound, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of Britain’s army, believes it is time we dwelt on them more. Sources have revealed that in intercepted military communications, Russian soldiers have been frantic as soon as they realise one is nearby or above them, because it means they are likely to come under accurate fire.
Air strikes continued overnight and into the early hours of Friday, with attacks being reported across the country - including on the capital Kyiv. Many experts say it is too soon to tell how Russia's invasion will affect its participation in climate diplomacy and international action, such as at the next yearly United Nations climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November. With war raging in Ukraine, many fear ministers will be distracted from climate action.

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