Notes

How to end the war in Ukraine
But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea. Under https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-poland-in-relation-to-ukraine.html , Russia escalates its military operations. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes.

The media give the impression that not joining NATO would breach Ukraine’s fundamental rights. The aim, therefore, is for a war of attrition through the winter months, starting with the consolidation of defensive positions and followed by further actions directed against three main elements. Realistically, the US position is likely to prevail in this diplomatic division, at least in the short term. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. In order to end a war, a leader’s chances of political and physical survival must be taken into calculation, says Goemans, who argues that an outright defeat in Ukraine may actually translate into a death sentence for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But most international efforts concentrate on the first part of this equation and not the second. Peace negotiations often take place in the UN Security Council with the aim of agreeing a formal resolution that, it is assumed, the belligerents dare not ignore. The prospect of a ceasefire resolution creates its own operational urgency. Russia’s recent military setbacks have led to hopes that the war might be over sooner rather than later, bringing an end to both the continuing death and destruction and the global economic disruption it has caused. What had appeared to be a rather slow-moving confrontation is now more dynamic.

On what terms could the war in Ukraine stop?
If Russia continues to suffer “defeats” at this pace, then in another two months the entire south of Ukraine will be in ruins, cities such as Odesa will resemble Mariupol, and thousands upon thousands more Ukrainians will have died. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I.


But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The first and most obvious way for Ukraine to win would be for its armed forces to take back all the territory Russia has unlawfully seized since its first invasion in 2014 —
including Crimea. And the United States should do everything possible to support it, including, if Congress approves more funding, by providing the more advanced weapons Ukraine has requested. The negotiations, facilitated by the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, saw Ukraine request an immediate ceasefire and the removal of all Russian forces from the country, the talks ended without resolution. The media give the impression that not joining NATO would breach Ukraine’s fundamental rights. In fact, no state has a right to join NATO – the existing member countries determine who should be admitted.

War in Ukraine: More coverage
If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons.

As to hybrid warfare, that may be more difficult to counter, but it remains risky for Russia because of the risk of exposure. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? It should have been wound up at the same time as the Warsaw Pact thirty years ago and replaced by new Europe-wide security arrangements.
These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Now the Chief of the General Staff, Britain’s top solider, is saying that the army must once again be prepared to fight a land war against Russia in Europe.


We must spare no effort in making these connections, which are more powerful than they have been in the previous wars we have campaigned against. The costs of the war are a key issue to take into the trade unions in the first place. Realistically, the US position is likely to prevail in this diplomatic division, at least in the short term. The preponderance of power dictates as much and, indeed, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy have been obliged to fly to Kyiv and sound more hawkish. A shift in British policy could tilt the balance, perhaps decisively, but the Johnson-Starmer bellicose bloc is showing no signs of shifting as yet. We have spent some time arguing issues out with the minority who feel that Russia’s actions are justified or should not be criticised.

Recalling that the conflict had started with a coup in 2014, he said Ukraine is “not a victim” and is “up to its elbows in blood and Nazi tattoos”. So, in recent years, Ukrainians have reached further into their history to argue that Ukrainian independence existed before the fall of the Soviet Union, or even the Russian Empire before it. Demonstrators are demanding an end to sanctions on Russian oil and natural gas before a freezing cold winter arrives. Yes, Russian forces could try to go on the offensive again, but the likely futility of attacking fortified Ukrainian positions now backed by the threat of NATO firepower would be a strong deterrent.
I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force.


My Website: https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-poland-in-relation-to-ukraine.html