Notes

Russia-Ukraine war could last for years, say western leaders Ukraine
While the bipartisan majority of lawmakers support arming Kyiv, 57 Republicans voted against a $40 billion emergency aid supplemental in May. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. Smith indicated he disagrees with the Biden administration’s decision not to send long-range missiles, noting every Ukrainian official assured him they would not use them to attack Russia. “It would have to get pretty bad for the Russians to get there,” he said, adding that there’s no way of knowing how many reserves the government stashed away after years of fat checks from energy sales.

Emily Harding, a former National Security Council staffer, warned Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe should prepare for 8-10 years of economically disruptive conflict in Ukraine, Roll Call reports. While its forces are pushing to also seize the nearby city of Lysychansk, Russia on Thursday announced the withdrawal of its troops from the strategically important Snake Island. Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts — backed by the West — to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland.
But there is no smooth drop-off — most of them end relatively quickly. Ukrainian military officials have conceded that hopes and expectations of a great breakthrough in the counteroffensive were not met. They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine. A Russian lawmaker suggested that a Russian military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war that was shot down over the Belgorod region Wednesday was part of a two-plane convoy en route to a prisoner swap with Ukraine. The Ukrainian leadership knew very well that, according to established practice, today Ukrainian military personnel would be transported by military transport aircraft to the Belgorod airfield for exchange.

Is Russia still using the concept of denazification as justification for the war? — Anya
As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled. Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports.

This is an example that you see occurring over and over again. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. After liberating a handful of villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been caught in largely attritional battles, with neither side making significant gains.
Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. “I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." It's become clear that the counteroffensive won't produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.

Russian woman jailed for 27 years for handing bomb to war blogger
I mean, an interesting thing about the regime is, of course, that Putin is the linchpin. And that’s exactly why he designed a system like that, right? So that he would be irreplaceable because he keeps the factions together and the flow of money to the right people. So he’s the linchpin of the regime and the question is, does Putin have the repressive apparatus of a Saddam Hussein who basically killed the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south when he lost the Gulf War? Or is he kind of a regime that cannot fully repress any domestic opposition?


When he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s original plan envisioned Russian forces capturing Kyiv within as little as three days. "I'm afraid we need to steel ourselves for a long war," he wrote. "Time is the vital factor. Everything will depend on whether Ukraine can strengthen its ability to defend its soil faster than Russia can renew its capacity to attack." And in a stark warning, the newly appointed head of the British Army said the UK and allies needed to be capable of winning a ground war with Russia.

"Ukraine may shift tactics to deal with a downturn in Western aid, but I don't believe they will surrender." "However, that does not mean that there are likely to be serious peace talks and a possible end to the war in 2024. Russia blamed Ukraine for what it called the "barbaric" shooting down of the Russian military transport plane over the border Belgorod region, killing all 65 Ukrainian POWs on board and nine Russians. "The goal is obvious — they want to reduce international support for our state. It doesn't work! Ukraine has the right to protect and destroy the means of an aggressor's air attack," he said in comments translated by NBC News. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded to Zelenskyy's comments Thursday, saying "if he means an international investigation into the criminal actions of the Kiev regime, it is definitely needed," news agency Interfax reported. Russia’s battlefield losses are so huge that western officials doubt it has the capacity to mount an offensive on the same scale again.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has focussed the West's military minds. He highlighted numerous threats, but there is one common thread amid all these warnings - Russia. Shoigu added that Russia could achieve its military goals with "consistent implementation of the measures in the action until 2025." However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.

How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end
Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.

Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. And in addition, know the attitude and behaviour of potential allies of either side. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.
I think that the Ukrainians are highly motivated and therefore are willing to tolerate very high costs. I mean, the Kremlin has a very effective propaganda apparatus and is successful in inculcating some belief among the ordinary Russians that this is a just war, and thereby driving up the willingness of the Russian people to suffer costs. In the end, I think that the Russians are not willing to suffer as many costs as the Ukrainians are. Gideon Rachman How do you assess the incentives of the Ukrainians? I mean, I suppose we hear from them and it’s difficult to dispute it, that they have no incentive to settle because they feel they’re fighting for their freedom and for their statehood. Gideon Rachman I mean, I think, you know, we talk about the first world war, but when you listen to what Putin says, the war that preoccupies him is the second world war.


Full 7th Floor, 130 West 42nd Street,
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NY 10036. "There may be an effort to create it but the Ukrainians are not going to go gently into the good night. They are going to fight like hell." From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox. The second thing to keep in mind here is that you must believe that any deal you make will stick, so there won’t be drastic changes in the future which will give one side an advantage and they will renege on the deal. The thing that is striking is that there is a cap on Ukrainian aims.


Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov, in comments to Reuters, reiterated on Thursday that - contrary to practice before previous PoW swaps - Kyiv had received no requests from Russia to refrain from attacks in the airspace where the plane was downed. Question marks and suspicions surround the shooting down Wednesday of a Russian military transport plane that was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and nine Russians. “Ukrainian forces have likely suffered desertions in recent weeks. However, Russian morale highly likely remains especially troubled.


And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/why-many-russians-feel-a-deep-unease-over-going-to-war-the-new-york-times-1707516517 s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble. As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing.

My Website: https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/why-many-russians-feel-a-deep-unease-over-going-to-war-the-new-york-times-1707516517