Notes

Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief
Russian ground troops moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. The village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region could offer a similar stepping stone but Russian forces are reported to have made some advances in the area. Ukraine first announced it had made a breakthrough in mid-November - the river had separated Ukrainian and Russian forces since Moscow's troops withdrew from Kherson a year ago. For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war "in one day" if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they're deployed in Ukraine.


Ukraine's intelligence agency confirmed a prisoner exchange had been scheduled but did not take place. The head of Ukraine's air force slammed what he described as Russian "propaganda" over the shooting down of a Russian plane transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war on Wednesday, saying Moscow was trying to discredit Ukraine. Fragments of what appears to be an anti-aircraft guided missile were found at the crash site of the downed Russian military transport plane, Russian new agency TASS reported Thursday. The mobilization of thousands of men to fight in Russia's armed forces has also likely led to a workforce shortage across all industries, including heating engineers and plumbers, the ministry noted in an intelligence update.

Russia-Ukraine war could last for years, say western leaders
This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. Still, it’s an open question whether the U.S. will be able to indefinitely continue its current level of support, said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser who has studied the volumes of artillery used in the war. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict. https://diigo.com/0vbo4m has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit.


Over the summer, however, the challenge facing Ukraine's forces was glaringly obvious as they struggled to break through heavily fortified Russian positions and lines of defenses along a swathe of the 600-mile-long front line across the southern and east of the country. In the fall, Azerbaijani forces defeated Armenian troops and recaptured the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh, three decades after Baku had suffered a military defeat to Armenia. "The Ukrainian leadership was well aware of the impending exchange and was informed of how the prisoners would be delivered," he said during a speech in the State Duma, according to a NBC News translation of his comments.

When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.
"The only way I can foresee the Ukraine war possibly ending in 2024 is if Vladimir Putin dies," Beth Knobel, professor of communications and media studies at Fordham University, and former CBS News Moscow bureau chief, told Newsweek. Outlier events cannot be ruled out, such as the brazen challenge to Putin's authority by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose death in a plane crash followed his seizure of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and a march on Moscow. Also, the Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed rumors about Putin's health.


For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year. But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond.


You can’t kill just Ukrainians and no Russians and therefore swing the tide on the battlefield. If he uses a nuke against a civilian target, I mean, the whole world is gonna be against them, you know. And that may take longer to fight, but the whole world will mobilise against him, support the Ukrainians, and there’s no way he’s gonna win. The only way I can see Putin use nuclear weapons goes back to this story that I told earlier about the western allies and particularly the people in Germany, who are very, very skittish about nuclear weapons. So that’s the only strategy that I can see Putin really using nuclear weapons.

But others have responded by "prepping for war" - stocking food and fuel. You can find the survey at ft.com/rachmansurvey and we’ll put the link in our show notes. On Wednesday the country's defence minister, Oleksiy Resnikov, met some 50 countries in the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels to ask for more arms and ammunition.
"Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you're seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians," he said. Ukraine disrupted Russia's operations around occupied Crimea, damaging Russian radars, air defense and ships on the Black Sea. Ukrainians troops have also broken through Russian defenses on the Dnipro River. "I don't think people in the U.S. should assume that Ukraine's continuing efforts to dislodge the Russians hinge entirely on U.S. or even West European actions," said Rachel Epstein, professor of International Relations and European Politics at the University of Denver. But as GOP lawmakers fight for immigration reform, particularly on the U.S. southern border, ahead of financial support for Ukraine, "it would not be unreasonable to expect Biden to, at the very least, attempt to extend the conflict into 2025." Zelensky's visit to Washington, D.C., on December 12, was lower key than the red-carpet treatment he previously received.


The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington.


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