Notes

How can Russias invasion of Ukraine end? Heres how peace negotiations have worked in past wars
So there are good reasons to be optimistic about Ukraine’s capabilities. Despite earlier estimates that Moscow might soon run out of artillery ammunition, drones and missiles, attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and along the entire front line have continued unabated for weeks. This lack of Russian progress is particularly telling in the case of Bakhmut, a small city in Donbas, that has been relentlessly attacked by regular and irregular Russian forces for months, but has been ably defended and thus remains firmly in Ukrainian hands. The Korean scenario would be part of the second option, which predicts the serious danger that is democratic reversal in Ukraine. In https://desertoption93.bloggersdelight.dk/2024/02/09/russia-attack-on-ukraine-catastrophe-for-europe-say-boris-johnson/ , an advisor to the Slovak Foreign Ministry explained to EL PAÍS that one of his government’s main concerns is that, when the time comes to force negotiations between the two sides, Ukraine will take an authoritarian path. Russia refuses to recognise its invasion as a war, and says it is undertaking a "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The GLSDB has a range of up to 93 miles, doubling Ukraine’s strike range. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. "That would probably not be an end, though, that would be the state of active warfare declining, at least temporarily, and it becomes something closer to a frozen conflict that can heat up or cool down depending on the range of factors," he said.
However, there are notable differences, because the two German states – like the two Koreas – were both recognized internationally. Furthermore, there was no armed conflict between East and West Germany. The German case is used by Kyiv to demonstrate that, despite the Russian occupation of part of its territory, free Ukraine can be a member of NATO, just like the Federal Republic of Germany once was.

Explosions heard across the country
Tying Ukrainian NATO membership to such conditions would give Putin another incentive never to meet them. As the scale of the attack became clear, and the Ukrainian military worked to respond, many questioned whether the country would be able to resist the military might of its neighbour. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol.


This major war in Europe has been so great a shock that the EU will continue to build up its military power no matter how the fighting in Ukraine ends. At the same time, European leaders are unlikely to welcome a return to the days of the Cold War. That is why in our scenarios Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remain out front in trying to engage Putin and establish a peace settlement. With a deep recession already baked in for the foreseeable future, Putin is also counting on the quietism of the Russian public. It will take time for Western sanctions against Russia to be reversed even in the best case, and it will be hard for Western companies to go back into the country until a different regime takes power. In all the scenarios, Russia will come out of this crisis more dependent on China.

Simple guide to Ukraine crisis in maps
Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. A similar situation emerged after the fighting in Ukraine in 2014, with the unresolved conflict featuring a form of continued Russian occupation for many years. The "special military operation" in Ukraine has already beaten most analysts expectations and, with more offensives planned for this year, there appears to be no end in sight. Professor Clarke said the downfall of Mr Putin was only a matter of time and would likely be brought about from within the military and Russia's security service, with the support of oligarchs fed up with the Kremlin. The current outlook for a negotiated deal would likely involve Ukraine ceding some territory to Russia, analysts say.


In the space of a fortnight, Natalie Taranec went from teaching at a school in Kyiv to making a desperate dash to the sanctuary city of Lviv and fleeing to another country. Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and disrupting the lives of 44 million people. Western countries and experts are divided on how seriously to take the threats.


"The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era," he said. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation." "Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see."

The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high. Not fully recuperated from slow economic growth during the pandemic and encumbered with higher debt levels, many developing countries now face higher food costs and, for the non-energy exporters, greater energy burdens as a result of the war in Ukraine. European security was also fundamentally changed by Russia's invasion on February 24 and many states outside of Russia and Ukraine have a stake in its outcome, analysts said. Areas in the west of the country, including Lviv, have experienced missile attacks, but no attempt by Russian forces to take and occupy ground. Since war in the east broke out in April 2014, more than 14,000 people have died.
If the West remains united with Ukraine, it could make the costs of the war so insurmountable for Russia that it breaks the level of commitment of its political elite. The Ukraine war has had tremendous ripple effects throughout the world's economy by driving up gas prices and inflation rates, impeding the flow of goods, exacerbating world hunger and stretching the entire humanitarian system. The longer the war drags on, there is an increased chance it may slow to "more of a nasty simmer", like the one prior to the full-scale invasion in February, Ms Oliker says.


My Website: https://desertoption93.bloggersdelight.dk/2024/02/09/russia-attack-on-ukraine-catastrophe-for-europe-say-boris-johnson/