Notes

Monday briefing: What would a win look like for both sides in Ukraine? Ukraine
Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. This is an edited and abbreviated transcript of our conversation. The most important question in all of this, Greene says, is what the west’s response will be because their priority is keeping Russia isolated at least to some degree to stop them from waging further war. “The more you keep Russia isolated the harder it is for them to reinvest in their military,” he says.


And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.

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“So sanctions actually do become a tool of military engagement.” But in the context of a settlement, the international community would need to prioritise peace, not maximum humiliation for Russia. Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum and the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, told me that a real victory for Ukraine is one where the country is in a more secure position than it was before the war began. This is the second Russian-Ukrainian war in the last decade, she notes, and a meaningful victory should stop a third war from ever happening. Practically speaking, in the short term, Orysia says, “Ukraine will have to push Russia out of as much territory as possible, including the occupation in the south and in Donbas”. https://pastelink.net/submit , a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., told CNBC on Friday that the Russians "have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. This thing could really drag on for a long time." Less than two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the country's people and armed forces continue to mount a staunch — and undeniably brave — resistance against Russian forces.


Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble.

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However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today. "The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent," Mr OBrien says. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources".


It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders. Britain - like other western powers - is coming to Ukraine's aid. It's threatening economic sanctions against Russia if it invades. It's providing Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles. For more than six months, Guardian correspondents in Ukraine have delivered powerful, independent reporting.

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When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv. I’ll tell you how my expectations of this conflict have evolved. I’m very much on record for saying that I thought Putin would invade.


We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent.

They have also created a patchy land corridor connecting Crimea to Russia for the first time since that area was taken in 2014. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration. He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III." When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv. An April estimate of the cost of rebuilding Ukraine ranged from $500 billion to $1 trillion, far beyond Kyiv’s means. A conflict where a major nuclear power and energy exporter violated the sovereignty of a country that is a keystone of global food security was never going to be contained to just two countries.
Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.

And sadly enough, no one who matters seems to be thinking about them. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. As Gen Sir Patrick Sanders stated several times in his speech on Wednesday, "Ukraine really matters". Ukraine has fought with great courage to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy.
Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war. The suffering and destruction in Ukraine and the economic turmoil the war has produced in the West should be compelling enough reasons to end it. Ditto the devastation it continues to create in some of the world’s poorest countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen. Along with devastating droughts and local conflicts, it has led to staggering increases in the price of basic foods (with both Ukrainian and Russian grains, to one degree or another, blocked from the market). More than 27 million people are already facing acute food shortages or outright starvation in those four nations alone, thanks at least in part to the conflict in Ukraine.

While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow. Instead, over the past year Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully pushed back the invading troops. Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories.
Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.

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