Notes

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.

After years spent scaling-back artillery, ammunition and tank investments, Europe has cleared out old warehouses to supply Ukraine with the weapons it wants and needs to fight Russia. Earlier this month, its civil defence minister told a defence conference "there could be a war in Sweden". If Russia continues to expand it targeting and military pressure on Ukraine’s export capabilities, it may succeed in destroying much of Ukraine’s remaining ability to maintain a functional economy. Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all.
Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration. This means that the willingness of the general population to suffer in the face of high costs is of the utmost importance. Second, the two sides might not trust that an agreement made today will be honoured tomorrow. Finally, countries might not be able to settle the contentious issue, especially when ethnic, religious or ideological tensions are involved.

Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024
Past attempts to squeeze the will for war out of Moscow economically also didn’t yield the immediate results for which experts hoped. Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all. “This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America. But https://barlow-larsen.blogbright.net/ukraine-russia-war-latest-hungary-signals-major-shift-in-ukraine-funding-stance-russia-claims-it-has-taken-control-of-kharkiv-village-1707599956 and other Western leaders should tell them that this is an option they will have if their counteroffensive is still grinding on next year.


For now, Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains he will continue to fight to the bitter end. Russia could make a push for more land or the flow of weapons to Kyiv could be halted, bringing forward a stalemate. Ask any analyst or observer how they think the war in Ukraine will play out, and they'll tell you their guess is only as good as the next offensive.

Partners
If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. However, laying the groundwork for a serious effort to negotiate real peace offers at least some chance of changing Russian and Ukrainian positions over time. In practical terms, neither outcome would produce a stable peace or form of conflict resolution.


It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia.


Russian and Ukrainian forces have essentially been locked in a slow, grinding fight since November, particularly around the gateway to the north and central parts of Luhansk, as the war shifted into positional warfare. In a two-hour address on Tuesday night, Vladimir Putin gave no indication the war would end any time soon, promising to continue Russia's offensive against its neighbour "step by step". Such a settlement would almost certainly trigger an ongoing arms race. Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict.


Website: https://barlow-larsen.blogbright.net/ukraine-russia-war-latest-hungary-signals-major-shift-in-ukraine-funding-stance-russia-claims-it-has-taken-control-of-kharkiv-village-1707599956