Notes

What history shows: How will the war in Ukraine end? Russia-Ukraine war
The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance.


Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Whatever scenario comes next, there is little doubt that Russia will enter a period of faster decline.

How has the conflict changed?
Currently, western intelligence estimates Russia is taking 1,000 casualties a day. There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia. One key question that could determine the war’s end game is how long Ukraine’s backers can keep up their arms donations to Kyiv. The Biden administration earlier this month announced it is sending Ukraine the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb.

Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep. Mr Putin's exit would not end the war in Ukraine because the Russian leader would likely be replaced by another pro-war nationalist, Professor Clarke said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russia's military and other government agencies were taking the necessary measures, including when it comes to air defences, after the suspected Ukrainian drone attack on the terminal. Peskov added on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had received reports on the Donetsk attack and that Russia's "special military operation" — as it calls its invasion of Ukraine — would continue in order to "protect" people. https://pastelink.net/submit armed forces operating in the region denied they had carried out the attack, stating Sunday that they "did not conduct any combat operations with means of destruction." Ukrainians are undeterred in their fighting spirit, and Kyiv’s international partners show no sign of weakening in their resolve of support. On the contrary, all the signs are that he will double down and continue to lay waste to a country whose very right to exist he denies.

How can Russia’s invasion of Ukraine end? Here’s how peace negotiations have worked in past wars
To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. "The price we pay is in money, while the price the Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price," NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of last year. In the meantime, the costs of the war would continue to weigh heavily on Russia, possibly weakening Mr Putin's internal support. Any progress towards talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of temporary arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.


Or Mr Putin could resort to more-drastic measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, Dr Oliker warns. "The Ukrainians, I think, have confounded most expectations — [but], I think, this is all contingent on Western support continuing," King's College London professor of conflict and security Tracey German said. Russian and Ukrainian forces have essentially been locked in a slow, grinding fight since November, particularly around the gateway to the north and central parts of Luhansk, as the war shifted into positional warfare. In a two-hour address on Tuesday night, Vladimir Putin gave no indication the war would end any time soon, promising to continue Russia's offensive against its neighbour "step by step". However, Jones said that NATO declaring war on Russia could create a major war that could pull in other countries like China, which is an outcome that the organization likely wants to avoid. In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.


Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Maybe it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street.


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