Notes

How Will the War in Ukraine End?
Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Prepare for the possibility of a long, shape-shifting conflict, perhaps lasting years, even a decade or more.

"The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era," he said. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Both have suffered heavy losses and each knows that the war could drag on for years at a staggering cost without either achieving its aims. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected".
If we see the average Ukrainian’s willingness to suffer and fight lagging, it should give us cause for concern. To this end, western governments have stepped up humanitarian and defensive aid to Ukraine, in order to ensure that Ukrainian support for the war endures. In a matter of days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated to one of the biggest military conflicts in Europe since the second world war. The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last. While no one can provide definitive answers, academic research on war gives us some insights into how the conflict in Ukraine might unfold.

After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight
Ukraine would be free to receive arms and military training from any country, but foreign troops and bases would be banned from its territory. Such economic headwinds, along with the diminution of the early euphoria created by Ukraine’s impressive battlefield successes, could produce “Ukraine fatigue” in the West. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s biggest supporters, including the Biden administration, could soon find themselves preoccupied with economic and political challenges at home and ever less eager to keep billions of dollars in economic aid and weaponry flowing. While Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has signaled an openness to relinquishing his country’s aspirations to NATO membership, Russia’s assault continues apace. The U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said last week that he saw no signs that the Russian government was engaging in good-faith efforts to end the war, a day after France’s counterpart expressed similar skepticism.

And that has direct consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes. A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.


Wars often do not end predictably, and a failure to achieve hoped-for victories often leads to a sudden change of government. Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep. So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control. “You end up with something between a frozen conflict and an everlasting war, in which neither side has the energy or economy to win,” Nixey said. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages. Congress provided more than $100 billion in aid to Kyiv since Russia invaded last year, including $61.4 billion in military aid.

UK army chief warns citizens to prepare for massive war with Russia
The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent. Putin’s presidency began with the second Chechen war in 1999, when separatist rebels sought independence from Russia. The war, which ended with the Chechen capital razed to the ground and Chechen resistance largely stamped out, left a lasting imprint on Putin’s approach to regions seeking to break away from Russian influence, according to analysts. Meanwhile, Russian demands for Ukraine’s demilitarisation and neutrality are a “non-starter”, according to Slantchev.

Other analysts warn of a "quagmire" — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term. A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine. Before the war, Putin pushed for a neutral Ukraine that would foreswear all military alliances.
Under this scenario, Russia escalates its military operations. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile.

As Gen Sir Patrick Sanders stated several times in his speech on Wednesday, "Ukraine really matters". Russia's ambitions, he said, were not just about seizing territory but "about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically and symbolically". The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war. In his first major speech on defence, Grant Shapps said the country was moving from a "post war to a pre-war world".

Putin’s War of Aggression in Ukraine increases Russia’s Diplomatic Isolation: UK statement to the OSCE
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.


Around 80% of the male population complete some form of military service. Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too. But others have responded by "prepping for war" - stocking food and fuel. There is a sense in the upper echelons of the British military that many politicians and most of the public have not grasped the threat they see.


On 25 March, Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, head of main operations in the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, seemed to announce a change of strategy along these lines, publicly disclaiming any interest in storming the main Ukrainian cities. Is the Kremlin trying to prepare Russian public opinion for failure? The stalemate in Ukraine would come to resemble the stalemate in the Donbas, only on a much larger scale. Ultimately, https://telegra.ph/How-a-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine-could-spill-over-into-Europe-02-13 appears that this war will not end quickly, as it will take a considerable amount of time for either side to make the other give up.


Although Putin attempted to build up a financial bulwark that would allow him to protect the interests of the oligarchs, the sanctions imposed by the west have undercut most of his efforts. Before the war, Putin pushed for a neutral Ukraine that would foreswear all military alliances. That alliance’s decision, at its 2008 Bucharest summit, to open the door to that country (and Georgia) was irrevocable. A month after the Russian invasion began, Zelensky put neutrality on the table, but it was too late.

Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today. The obvious strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea, so cutting off the peninsula from its hinterland, with an attack towards Melitopol or Berdansk. The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent. Britain is not the only country to be punishing Russia with sanctions - the US has gone further and Germany, for example, has now postponed giving the green light to the massive Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia - but the UK is in the forefront of pushing for penalties. “The narrative is the great struggle of the Cold War,” he said, a framing that has helped to attract new recruits.
President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. The Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, a senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, also pointed to the Kremlin’s imperial aspirations as a key indicator to watch, but added that these could be thwarted by developments off the battlefield. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.

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