Notes

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Hungary signals 'major shift' in Ukraine funding stance; Russia claims it has taken control of Kharkiv village
Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.

The bill, which will funnel support to Ukraine for about the next five months, includes some $6bn budgeted for armoured vehicles and air defences. Russia seems committed to seizing more of Eastern Ukraine as well as to keeping the territory it seized in 2014. It would also leave NATO and Russia in a state of military confrontation like the Cold War. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. If Ukraine manages to clear some of those hurdles, its forces could be in a position by July to retake large portions of land, according to the Royal United Services Institute's former director, Professor Michael Clarke.
Though recorded in 21st-century fashion through up-close-and-personal shots from mobile phone cameras and high-definition drone footage, the images being captured – of artillery duels and trench warfare – have a distinctly last-century feel to them. All one can say is that intense diplomatic activity can generate its own dynamic and could be a feature of 2024 largely absent from 2023. After a year in which both sides looked forward to military advances and were disappointed, this new year starts with expectations so low that the only way we can possibly be surprised is by developments that get us closer to a resolution. By the end of July there was no point in pretending that all was going well. One problem is it leads to playing down the benefits the US has always got in its conventional operations from superior firepower. As we learnt more it also became apparent that the demands of close coordination of complex operations in tough conditions were beyond fresh units that had not quite enough training.

When will it be over? What's it going to take to get Russia out of Ukraine? — Sam
The United States and its strategic partners clearly face major challenges in doing so. As noted earlier, Russia and Ukraine are both preparing for another major period of actual conflict, and neither is even rumored to be seeking a peaceful outcome on terms the other side can accept. Russia seems committed to seizing more of Eastern Ukraine as well as to keeping the territory it seized in 2014. https://notes.io/wiENh has established a pattern of missile strikes and other forms of warfare that affect every aspect of civil life in Ukraine. At a minimum, even the most courageous and unified people will need the kind of U.S. and allied grand strategy that provides clear guarantees that the necessary military and civil aid will keep coming.


It would show that the West is committed to creating a more stable and peaceful relationship with Russia, effectively seizing the high moral ground. The current U.S. and European focus on war to the near exclusion of peace fails to do this. There is no question that the current state of the war is scarcely favorable to negotiating a serious and lasting peace or a major improvement in U.S. and European relations. This does not mean, however, that the United States and its European allies do not start now to work for the kind of settlement that might lead to real peace. It has called for a return or recovery of all its territory, and for reparations and war crimes trials for what Ukrainian claims in January 2023 already indicated could exceed 60,000 cases. None of these Ukrainian demands may prove to be practical even with a massive level of continuing outside aid to Ukraine.

Military moves would start to be judged by how they affected prospective talks. Even if there was a sudden interest in peace negotiations these could well be played for time and propaganda effect without much expectation that they would lead to an agreement. The election is so obviously rigged that it is hard for outsider observers to take it seriously as a landmark date. He would no doubt like some tangible victory before then – say the capture of all the Donbas that would allow him to argue that core objectives have been met. If there has not been any progress then at least he should take stock. The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken.

What do the Ukrainian people want the world to know besides their need for our support and military aid? — Erik
The West needs to clearly recognize that one key element of an effective grand strategy is to support Ukraine with the aid it needs for as long as it takes. Today, focusing on the short-term aspect of the fighting, and on Ukraine’s near-term military needs, has created a growing risk that legislature and public opinion will cut aid to levels Ukraine cannot survive. There is currently no way to predict when and how the war between Russia and Ukraine—which has become a proxy war involving the U.S. and its strategic partners – will end. Ukraine has not sustained its counteroffensives against Russia and has made some gains in the recent fighting. More importantly, Ukraine has not recovered most of the territory it lost in 2022, and Putin’s Russia is conducting a major military build-up. The result is that Ukraine now faces a bitter war of attrition against steadily growing Russian forces, facing ongoing missile and air attacks on Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure as Russia seeks to win through superior mass.


"Unfortunately, there is a very real chance that the Russo-Ukraine war will last well into 2024 and possibly beyond," he said. The Republican primary front runner has been announced by Kremlin propagandists as Moscow's favored White House resident-in-waiting, not just because of his railing against congressional support for Ukraine. Trump also described Putin as "very smart" following the full-scale invasion and has rejected U.S. intelligence assessments that Putin had interfered on his behalf in the 2016 election.


And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.

There is also the extremely tricky issue of mobilisation which is now being addressed but requires up to 500,000 recruits. Of these the most unlikely, such as peace negotiations, can be worth discussing to understand why they are unlikely or what would need to change to make them likely. For a year several NATO countries wanted to provide US-made Abrams tanks but Washington would not approve. It would make success dependent on events we cannot predict or control, including on the outcome of elections in Western countries, including the United States. A Russian “victory” would leave Russia so divided from Europe that Russia would face a major ongoing confrontation with the West.
With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.


But even if the offensive had made more progress it would have been a tall order to put the Russians sufficiently in a corner that their choice was only between battlefield humiliation and a negotiated withdrawal. We also need to keep in mind that there have been some successes, including pushing back the Black Sea Fleet through the effective use of naval drones. The bigger question was whether the crisis would destabilise the regime.


Furthermore the battles in the Donbas against the Russians, including for Bakhmut (which was eventually taken in June) had come at a high cost, with many experienced soldiers lost in the fight. The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense. One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year.

The United States has already done much in working with its partners to support Ukraine and check Putin. It has a homegrown war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes there is a good chance Russia can sustain the conflict for years to come. More broadly, the war had exhibited many traits that were familiar to theorists of war. Meanwhile, Ukraine had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow.
And even though the fall of the Soviet Union was notable for its lack of bloodshed, many in Ukraine refer to today's conflict as a true "war of independence." The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes. Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts — backed by the West — to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland. As such, many Ukrainians are against the war, with "no war" becoming a common slogan.

My Website: https://notes.io/wiENh