Notes

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect you : NPR
Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a bad idea quite apart from the Kremlin’s threats against Ukraine, though US sanctions against German and other European companies would be a costly way of dealing with it. The prospect of a new Kremlin attack on Ukraine seems, finally, to have convinced the new German government to change course on the pipeline and acknowledge that it could not proceed in the face of new Russian aggression.


Russia’s main demand that Ukraine never be part of NATO and the organisation won’t expand further into Eastern Europe has been rejected. Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. “We have become so comfortable here in Britain that it’s hard to imagine young people fighting, and when I went to Afghanistan a decade ago, I didn’t think the youngsters of would be up to much,” he said. The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier. “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.

What are the main targets?
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that several missiles have hit infrastructure and border guards. Explosions have been heard by residents in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities across the country. However, uncertainty seems to be prevailing in Ukraine as people are being urged to stay at home where possible. But the president has imposed martial law across the country, saying that Ukraine was "ready for everything".

Putin watchers believe he will seek to extend control of the four regions that he has declared to be part of Russia, not just in Donbas, but towards the key city of Zaporizhzhia. Moreover, by creating economic shocks in the energy markets and weaponising famine as a political instrument, Russia has further globalised the consequences of its war. Moscow could try to gamble that limited action would fracture NATO's unity, as some European governments might be reluctant to impose severe penalties in that case, Hodges said. One reason may be fear that direct combat could lead to a wider European war, perhaps even risking a Russian nuclear threat. They’ve also criticised the US and NATO for giving Ukraine weapons, saying that it’s encouraging rebel areas.
He said countries that were criticizing Russia were showing “utter indifference to the fate of the Donbas people,” just as Kyiv and its Western backers had. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-putins-goal-in-ukraine.html in Kyiv have sought shelter in underground metro stations. Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed.

What's happening on the ground?
Either way, if Europe's natural gas supply is pinched, that could cause energy prices — which have already been climbing — to rise even further. And even though the U.S. imports relatively little oil from Russia, oil prices are set by the global market, meaning local prices could rise anyway. Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe.

Disruptions to those exports would mostly affect agriculture in Europe, but food prices around the world could rise as a result. This is a question lots of you put forward and has been tackled by our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes here... In addition, Russia could seek to extend the separatist-controlled area, possibly by seizing communication points or power plants that would make the region more viable as a separate quasi-state. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. The United States and its allies may further reinforce NATO's eastern flank with major ground and air units.
The historic decision by both Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership points to the gravity of this threat. Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers.


The majority of European countries turned to the tried and tested protective security umbrella of NATO, backed by American military capabilities. With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator. They feel that, if not stopped in and by Ukraine, Putin may entertain aggression against other territories.

In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep.
In addition, Russia could seek to extend the separatist-controlled area, possibly by seizing communication points or power plants that would make the region more viable as a separate quasi-state. They say that Ukraine - with Western support - has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources. Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support. The Institute for the Study of War thinktank says the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are "higher than most people imagine", as US resolve - particularly among Republicans - possibly wavers over providing more military aid to Kyiv.


Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO are a red line for Russia. He also expressed concerns that some members of NATO are trying to set up a military training centre in Ukraine. This would give the country a military advantage in eastern Europe without Ukraine even joining the alliance. While NATO say they are “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes”, they have the “military power to undertake crisis management operations” if diplomatic efforts aren’t successful.

Compared to Cold War practice, today, Kremlin propagandists and officials engage in highly irresponsible rhetoric advocating for the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, and possibly even against NATO states. That's what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank. "How we respond as the pre-war generation will reverberate through history. Ukrainian bravery is buying time, for now." Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked war has been a disaster for itself and the country it was unleashed on. First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014.
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